Why D’Andre Swift’s Large Sport was Dangerous Information for the Lions

NFL Week 10 – A number of fantasy managers have been beginning Lions working again D’Andre Swift this weekend, they usually have been most likely fairly completely satisfied along with his 133 yards from scrimmage in Detroit’s tie in opposition to Pittsburgh. Our numbers see issues otherwise, nevertheless, and whereas Swift acquired loads of touches in opposition to the Steelers, he did not really transfer the ball very effectively. Consequently, regardless of ending among the many prime 5 working backs in yards from scrimmage this week, he is in final place on the place in our rankings.

Regardless of his skills, Swift has spent a lot of the previous a number of years in committee backfields. He twice ran for over 1,000 yards with the Georgia Bulldogs regardless of splitting time with Elijah Holyfield. The Lions drafted him within the second spherical in 2020, however he spent most of his rookie season as change-of-pace again behind Adrian Peterson. He made probably the most of his restricted alternatives, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and ending within the prime 16 in each speeding DYAR and DVOA. Peterson’s contract expired after that season, however the Lions signed veteran Jamaal Williams in free company, leaving Swift caught in a timeshare but once more.

Williams began every of Detroit’s first seven video games this season, gathering 71 carries over that span. Swift, even and not using a begin, topped Williams with 78 carries, however neither was getting a lot of a workload within the Lion’s pass-heavy offense. Even when Williams missed the Lions’ Week 8 recreation in opposition to Philadelphia, Swift solely acquired 12 carries in a 44-6 loss.

Swift’s carries have been additionally restricted by Detroit’s pass-heavy scheme. Heading into their Week 9 bye, the Lions ranked fourth in move performs however solely twenty third in runs. Perhaps it is as a result of they have been in an in depth recreation for as soon as, possibly it is as a result of head coach Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, however they swung exhausting the opposite path popping out of their bye. Campbell solely known as 29 passing performs in opposition to Pittsburgh (solely Philadelphia had fewer in Week 10), however he known as for a league-high 39 runs.

That features 33 carries for Swift, greater than double his earlier profession excessive and 7 greater than the working again with the second-heaviest workload this week (his counterpart on this recreation, the Steelers’ Najee Harris). Twenty-four of these carries, nevertheless, failed to satisfy Soccer Outsiders’ requirements of success, eight greater than anybody else. That features a league-high 9 stuffs for no achieve or a loss. Solely 9 of Swift’s carries have been thought of profitable performs. A half-dozen gamers had greater than that; Minnesota’s Dalvin Prepare dinner had 15 profitable performs in solely 24 complete carries. Swift solely ran for 5 first downs in opposition to Pittsburgh. 5 gamers had extra this week; Inexperienced Bay’s AJ Dillon was first with 9, and he solely carried the ball 21 occasions. Lastly, we’ll be aware that Swift’s longest carry gained solely 21 yards. Eleven gamers had longer runs that this week, together with three on this recreation alone: Swift’s teammates Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson, who had respective 42- and 28-yard landing runs, plus Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph, who had a 26-yard scramble within the third quarter.

At the least Swift did not fumble, however then he did not rating a landing both. (He had two carries within the pink zone: a 1-yard loss on first-and-goal from the 7 and a 6-yard achieve on third-and-goal from the 8.) Add that each one up and Swift was our least beneficial rusher of the week. He additionally gained solely 3 yards on three catches (these are our numbers—the NFL formally credit him with 2 further yards on Detroit’s lateral play on the ultimate snap of additional time) and finishes close to the underside in receiving worth as properly. His totals: -18 speeding DYAR, -21 receiving DYAR, -39 mixed DYAR. These aren’t traditionally horrible figures—Miami’s Myles Gaskin nonetheless has the 12 months’s gold requirements of -47 speeding DYAR in Week 9 and -54 mixed DYAR in Week 6—however they’re very, very unhealthy for somebody with Swift’s yardage totals.

Our record of worst working again performances consists of 216 video games since 1983 (not counting this season) the place a working again had -50 mixed DYAR or worse. Solely three of them—none of which got here within the final 20 years—had extra yards from scrimmage than Swift: Eric Dickerson in opposition to Miami in 1986 (together with two fumbles), Vince Workman in opposition to Minnesota in 1992 (one fumble), and Moe Williams in opposition to Indianapolis in 2001 (one fumble). We even have an inventory of 82 video games the place a working again had -50 speeding DYAR or worse; solely three of them topped 100 yards on the bottom, with the chief being Williams with 111, 19 lower than Swift had in opposition to Pittsburgh.

We will develop our record of high-volume, low-efficiency video games by in search of different gamers who met a few of Swift’s primary figures:

  • 33 carries or extra.
  • Fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.
  • No speeding touchdowns.

Per Stathead, that is the fiftieth time since 1950 {that a} participant has hit all three of these marks. The final to do it was Frank Gore for the Colts in opposition to the Payments in 2017. Jerome Bettis did it thrice; Terrell Davis, Eddie George, Rodney Hampton, Lydell Mitchell, Jamie Morris, Walter Payton, Heath Sherman, and Ricky Williams did it twice every. These 50 groups had a mixed document of 36-11-3 by a mean margin of 19.2 to 13.7. In different phrases, most of those video games have been produced by groups whose defenses have been taking part in properly, in order that they have been content material to kill clock by working for no achieve again and again within the fourth quarter. Three ties in 50 video games can also be a sign that it is not all the time an efficient technique to end an opponent in an in depth contest. Oddly, most of these video games occurred in the midst of the 12 months, after the sunny days of September however earlier than the cruel climate of winter. Greater than half (27, to be exact) befell between Week 5 and Week 10.

Swift’s not going to get 33 carries each week, however with Williams’ standing nonetheless unsure and Campbell’s recreation plan incomes Detroit’s first non-loss of the season, it is protected to imagine he’ll lastly get the chance to be a bell-cow again for the remainder of 2021. What he does with that chance will largely decide the sort of function he will get in 2022.

 

Quarterbacks

Rk

Participant

Group

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

Complete
DYAR

Go
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Opp

1.

Patrick Mahomes KC

35/50

406

5

0

0

196

196

0

LV

Keys to scoring 41 factors: ship on third/fourth downs (10-of-13 for 165 yards and 9 conversions, together with two touchdowns) and contained in the opponents’ 40-yard line (16-of-24 for 173 yards and 5 touchdowns).

2.

Dak Prescott DAL

24/31

296

2

0

0

135

130

5

ATL

Thoughts you, Prescott’s Cowboys scored forty-three factors, and he additionally delivered on third/fourth downs (7-of-9 for 88 yards and 5 conversions, together with two touchdowns) and contained in the opponents’ 40-yard line (12-of-17 for 146 yards and two touchdowns). He finishes behind Mahomes partially as a result of he loses 55 DYAR resulting from opponent changes, and since he did not throw a single move within the fourth quarter.

3.

Jimmy Garoppolo SF

15/19

182

2

0

1

131

131

0

LAR

4.

Mac Jones NE

19/23

198

3

0

2

125

125

0

CLE

Whereas we’re at it, Jones’ Patriots scored forty-5 factors, and he additionally delivered on third/fourth downs (6-of-7 for 80 yards, plus a DPI for 7 extra yards, with seven conversions, one landing, and one sack) and contained in the opponents’ 40-yard line (10-of-12 for 88 yards with three touchdowns and one sack).

5.

Josh Allen BUF

21/28

366

2

1

2

116

119

-2

NYJ

The excellent news for Allen is that regardless of a league-high 12.9-yard common depth of goal, he was profitable on a league-best 63% of his dropbacks. Mix these two information and also you get the league’s finest passer on deep balls (7-of-10 for 244 yards with one interception). The unhealthy information is that he loses 45 DYAR resulting from opponent changes.

6.

Kirk Cousins MIN

26/37

294

2

0

2

100

102

-3

LAC

Cousins’ common move got here with 10.7 yards to go for a primary down, most amongst starters this week. He was the week’s finest passer within the third quarter, going 6-of-9 for 66 yards and a landing, plus an 11-yard DPI.

7.

Trevor Siemian NO

19/34

298

2

0

4

95

95

0

TEN

Of all individuals, Trevor Siemian was the NFL’s finest passer on throws to the appropriate, going 11-of-17 for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Actually! Trevor Siemian!

8.

Taylor Heinicke WAS

26/32

256

1

0

5

78

77

1

TB

Heinike’s common completion gained solely 3.4 yards after the catch, least within the league this week. He was one of the best passer within the pink zone, going 4-of-5 for 38 yards and a landing, plus a 13-yard DPI.

9.

Derek Carr LV

25/35

261

2

1

2

51

50

2

KC

Although he performed properly total, Carr had a foul evening on third and fourth downs, going 3-of-8 for six yards (sure) with one conversion, one interception, and two sacks. He had one different conversion on a 14-yard DPI.

10.

Ryan Tannehill TEN

19/27

213

1

0

2

46

50

-4

NO

Tannehill solely threw three deep passes in opposition to New Orleans, finishing two of them for 33 yards. His two largest performs—a 50-yard completion to Marcus Johnson and a 39-yarder to D’Onta Foreman—mixed to realize 3 yards via the air and 86 yards after the catch.

11.

Jalen Hurts PHI

16/23

178

2

1

1

35

38

-4

DEN

Hurts was the week’s finest passer within the first quarter, going 7-of-8 for 107 yards and a landing. His final move of the sport was an interception late within the third quarter that gave Denver the ball close to midfield, trailing solely 20-13. Fortuitously for Hurts, the Eagles protection compelled a fumble and returned it for a landing, and Philadelphia proceeded to run the ball on every of their 12 offensive performs within the fourth quarter.

12.

Case Keenum CLE

8/12

81

0

0

3

29

29

0

NE

Keenum got here into the sport with Cleveland down 31-7 late within the third quarter and was promptly sacked on every of his first two dropbacks. He nonetheless completed because the NFL’s finest passer on throws to receivers at or behind the road of scrimmage, going 4-of-4 for 44 yards. All 4 of these performs picked up first downs, inluding a third-down conversion.

Rk

Participant

Group

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

Complete
DYAR

Go
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Opp

13.

P.J. Walker CAR

22/28

167

0

1

0

26

36

-10

ARI

Walker’s common throw traveled an NFL-low 4.2 yards past the road of scrimmage. And on the uncommon events when he did throw deep, it did not go properly—he was the NFL’s worst passer on deep balls, going 0-for-2 with an interception. For those who’re curious, Cam Newton completed with 21 DYAR passing (3-of-4 for 8 yards and a landing, plus a 33-yard DPI) and 12 DYAR speeding (three carries for 14 yards and a landing).

14.

Justin Herbert LAC

20/34

195

1

1

2

23

17

6

MIN

Herbert’s common move got here with a league-low 7.0 yards to go for a primary down. His rating here’s a little higher than his uncooked numbers may counsel as a result of two of his three largest performs by DYAR have been a pair of DPIs that gained 19 and 28 yards, each on second-and-10.

15.

Tua Tagovailoa MIA

8/13

158

0

0

1

21

12

9

BAL

Tagovailoa got here into the sport with Miami up 6-3 within the third quarter. His common completion gained 11.8 yards after the catch, finest within the NFL this week. That is to not say he could not throw deep, nevertheless—he accomplished each of his two deep passes for a complete of 99 yards.

16.

Teddy Bridgewater DEN

22/36

226

0

0

1

-10

-10

0

PHI

Bridgewater was nearly tied for the worst DYAR on throws to working backs. He threw six of them to Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, however solely accomplished three of them: a 2-yard loss on third-and-9, a 10-yard achieve on third-and-14, and a 9-yard loss on second-and-5.

17.

Aaron Rodgers GB

23/37

292

0

1

1

-22

-11

-11

SEA

Rodgers, however, was finest on throws to working backs, going 6-of-8 for 123 yards. Nonetheless, he was worst on throws to tight ends (5-of-6 for 23 yards with no first downs and one interception) and within the pink zone (2-of-7 for 9 yards with no first downs and one interception).

18.

Jacoby Brissett MIA

11/23

156

0

0

2

-30

-29

0

BAL

Brissett had excessive splits by path. To his proper, he went 9-of-15 for 126 yards. Down the center, he went 2-of-4 for 30 yards. Lastly, he threw 4 passes to his left, all incomplete.

19.

Chris Streveler ARI

6/9

36

0

0

2

-37

-26

-11

CAR

Streveler’s job was not simple. He entered the sport going through a third-and-19 down by 31-3 margin within the third quarter. His common move got here with a league-high 11.4 yards to go for a primary down; solely one among his dropbacks got here with lower than 10 yards to go. That is one cause he solely threw for one first down, a 17-yard achieve on third-and-15.

20.

Mike White NYJ

24/44

251

0

4

1

-46

-46

0

BUF

White good points 79 DYAR resulting from opponent changes. Russell Wilson (43) is the one participant to realize even half as many. White was nonetheless the NFL’s worst passer on throws to his left, going 6-of-14 for 84 yards with two interceptions. And it is worse than even that for the Jets, as a result of whereas it would not have an effect on White’s DYAR, the longest of these completions was a 28-yard achieve that led to a fumble, recovered by the Payments.

21.

Tom Brady TB

23/34

220

2

2

0

-49

-51

2

WAS

Brady was the NFL’s worst passer within the first quarter, going 2-of-6 for five yards and a pair of interceptions. Each of these interceptions got here on throws down the center, the place he went 9-of-15 for 95 yards and a landing.

22.

Lamar Jackson BAL

26/41

238

1

1

4

-54

-64

10

MIA

Jackson was the worst passer in professional soccer on third and fourth downs, going 6-of-10 for 41 yards with solely two conversions, two sacks, and an interception. A kind of completions was additionally fumbled away, recovered by the Dolphins, and returned for a landing.

Rk

Participant

Group

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

Complete
DYAR

Go
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Opp

23.

Colt McCoy ARI

11/20

107

0

1

2

-61

-55

-6

CAR

McCoy completed final in DYAR on performs from below middle, going 4-of-11 for 29 yards with one conversion, one interception, and one sack. He did choose up one other first down on a 35-yard DPI. He solely transformed one third-down dropback, going 2-of-5 for 29 yards with a sack and a fumble.

24.

Carson Wentz IND

22/34

180

0

0

1

-61

-59

-2

JAX

Wentz loses 49 DYAR resulting from opponent changes. He was final in DYAR on throws to working backs, going 8-of-12 for under 27 yards.

25.

Matthew Stafford LAR

26/41

243

1

2

2

-64

-62

-2

SF

26.

Mason Rudolph PIT

30/50

242

1

1

0

-88

-104

16

DET

Rudolph loses 63 DYAR resulting from opponent changes. He threw a league-high 11 failed completions. In associated information, he was the NFL’s worst passer on throws to receivers at or behind the road of scrimmage, going 10-of-13 for 26 yards. Solely two of these completions gained first downs whereas three misplaced yardage, and one other was fumbled and recovered by the Lions.

27.

Jared Goff DET

14/25

114

0

0

4

-95

-95

0

PIT

Goff was profitable on an NFL-worst 24% of his dropbacks. He didn’t throw for a single first down between his personal 45-yard line and the objective line on the different finish of the sector, going 4-of-10 for 20 yards with two sacks.

28.

Trevor Lawrence JAX

16/35

162

0

0

3

-98

-109

11

IND

Each one among Lawrence’s dropbacks got here with Jacksonville trailing, most of them by a number of scores. On the uncommon events he did have an opportunity to tie the sport or take the lead, he went 3-of-7 for 27 yards with a sack and a fumble.

29.

Russell Wilson SEA

20/40

161

0

2

3

-110

-113

3

GB

Wilson was the week’s worst passer in … properly, in loads of splits. However for the sake of brevity, we’ll simply restrict our commentary to throws to huge receivers (6-of-23 for 45 yards with two interceptions, plus a 24-yard DPI) and contained in the opponents’ 40-yard line (3-of-10 for 8 yards with an interception and a sack).

30.

Baker Mayfield CLE

11/21

73

1

1

2

-112

-112

0

NE

Mayfield was the week’s worst passer on throws to the skin, going 7-of-16 for 36 yards with one landing and one interception.

31.

Matt Ryan ATL

9/21

117

0

2

2

-122

-122

0

DAL

Surprisingly, for a quarterback who completed in final place, Ryan wasn’t final in lots of classes. His worst rating got here within the third quarter, when he went 4-of-9 for 51 yards with a pair of interceptions. That features interceptions on two of his final three throws, and after that Atlanta pulled him for Josh Rosen … who proceeded to throw an interception on his first move, giving Falcons quarterbacks three interceptions in a span of 4 throws. Rosen completed 1-of-6 for 14 yards with -49 DYAR himself. For those who ignore taking part in time restrictions, Rosen was the week’s worst passer within the fourth quarter, and on throws to tight ends, though DYAR is a counting stat.

 

5 Greatest Operating Backs by DYAR (Complete)

Rk

Participant

Group

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Complete
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Christian McCaffrey CAR

13

95

0

10/10

66

0

56

33

22

ARI

Often when a working again averages 7.3 yards per carry, there’s one long term skewing the information, and his median carry is far shorter. It is really the other for McCaffrey, who gained 10 or extra yards on seven of his 13 carries, however has his common turfed due to the 2 occasions he was stuffed. Three of his catches additionally picked up first downs, together with a pair of third-down conversions

2.

Darrel Williams KC

11

43

0

9/9

101

1

53

2

52

LV

Williams was stuffed thrice whereas solely speeding for 2 first downs, although that features a 21-yard achieve on second-and-3. Nonetheless, he added 4 first downs as a receiver, together with 17- and 22-yard good points on first-and-10 and a 38-yard landing on third-and-11.

3.

AJ Dillon GB

21

66

2

2/2

62

0

46

22

24

SEA

Dillon’s longest carry gained solely 11 yards, however he nonetheless picked up 9 first downs whereas being stuffed simply thrice. His two catches: a 12-yard achieve on second-and-10 and a 50-yard achieve on second-and-6.

4.

D’Onta Foreman TEN

11

30

0

2/2

48

0

38

10

28

NO

Foreman didn’t run for a single first down in opposition to the Saints and his longest carry gained simply 6 yards, however he was stuffed simply as soon as, and he good points 22 speeding DYAR resulting from opponent changes. His two catches: a 9-yard achieve on second-and-8 and a 39-yard achieve on second-and-7.

5.

Boston Scott PHI

11

81

0

2/2

24

0

37

24

13

DEN

Scott was stuffed thrice and solely ran for 4 first downs, however that features good points of 17, 21, and 23 yards. His two catches: a 16-yard achieve on second-and-12 and an 8-yard achieve on second-and-10.

 

5 Greatest Operating Backs by DYAR (Dashing)

Rk

Participant

Group

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Complete
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Rhamondre Stevenson NE

20

100

2

4/5

14

0

20

43

-23

CLE

Though the Browns stuffed Stevenson 5 occasions, he nonetheless picked up seven first downs on the bottom, together with 4 runs of 10-plus yards, the longest a achieve of 18.

2.

James Robinson JAX

12

57

1

4/5

27

0

35

39

-4

IND

Robinson ran for 5 first downs in opposition to Buffalo, together with good points of 10, 14, and 18 yards, whereas being stuffed simply twice. He additionally good points 16 speeding DYAR resulting from opponent changes.

3.

Jonathan Taylor IND

21

116

1

6/8

10

0

3

37

-34

JAX

Whereas Taylor solely gained 5 first downs and was stuffed 5 occasions, 11 of his 21 carries gained 4 yards or extra, together with good points of 20 and 34 yards. We must always point out that his longest catch was a 6-yard achieve on third-and-8, and none of his catches picked up first downs or counted as profitable performs.

4.

Christian McCaffrey CAR

13

95

0

10/10

66

0

56

33

22

ARI

5.

Boston Scott PHI

11

81

0

2/2

24

0

37

24

13

DEN

 

Worst Operating Again by DYAR (Complete)

Rk

Participant

Group

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Complete
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

D’Andre Swift DET

33

130

0

3/6

3

0

-39

-18

-21

PIT

Swift’s final first down on the bottom got here on a 12-yard achieve on third-and-9 early within the third quarter. From that time to the tip of the sport, he carried the ball 17 occasions for 28 yards, a 1.7-yard common, getting stuffed six occasions. Oh, and his three receptions: a 3-yard loss on second-and-1; a 5-yard achieve on third-and-20; and a 1-yard achieve on third-and-1.

 

Worst Operating Again by DYAR (Dashing)

Rk

Participant

Group

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Complete
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Elijah Mitchell SF

27

91

0

0/0

0

0

-28

-28

0

LAR

The Rams stuffed Mitchell eight occasions on Monday evening, whereas he ran for under 4 first downs.

 

5 Greatest Huge Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR

Rk

Participant

Group

Rec

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Complete
DYAR

Opp

1.

Deebo Samuel SF

5

5

97

19.4

1

103

LAR

Samuel’s totals embrace 46 speeding DYAR for his 5 carries for 36 yards. All 5 of these carries gained not less than 4 yards; three gained first downs. Three of his catches additionally gained first downs, all of which have been third-down conversions.

2.

Kendrick Bourne NE

4

4

98

24.5

1

91

CLE

Bourne’s totals embrace 31 DYAR speeding for his three carries for 43 yards, all of which gained not less than 11 yards. All 4 of his catches gained not less than 12 yards and a primary down; the longest of these was a 48-yarder thrown by Brian Hoyer, not Mac Jones. He additionally picked up a 7-yard DPI to transform a third-and-5.

3.

Justin Jefferson MIN

9

11

143

15.9

0

64

LAC

Jefferson’s totals embrace -10 speeding DYAR for his one carry, a 4-yard loss. Take away everybody’s speeding information and he was the highest receiver of the week. Six of his catches produced first downs, together with three third-down conversions. 4 of them gained 20-plus yards. He additionally transformed one other third down with an 11-yard DPI on third-and-10.

4.

Bryan Edwards LV

3

4

88

29.3

1

52

KC

Edwards’ 5 targets: 27-yard achieve on first-and-10; 14-yard DPI on third-and-6; 37-yard achieve on first-and-10; 24-yard achieve on second-and-9; incompletion on third-and-5.

5.

CeeDee Lamb DAL

6

7

94

15.7

2

52

ATL

Lamb’s totals embrace 6 speeding DYAR for his one carry, a 12-yard achieve on first-and-15. 5 of his catches produced first downs. Each of his touchdowns have been third-down conversions. He additionally had a 21-yard catch on fourth-and-5 and a 37-yard catch on second-and-7.

 

Worst Huge Receiver or Tight Finish by DYAR

Rk

Participant

Group

Rec

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Complete
DYAR

Opp

1.

Marquise Brown BAL

6

13

37

6.2

0

-71

MIA

Solely one among Brown’s catches (an 11-yard achieve on first-and-10) picked up a primary down, although he did add one other conversion with a 17-yard DPI on first-and-10. He additionally fumbled on a third-down catch, and although the Ravens recovered, it was nonetheless a 7-yard achieve on third-and-10, forcing a punt. By the way in which, although he wasn’t the worst receiver of this week, we wished to say Mike Gesicki, who didn’t catch any of the seven targets thrown his method (4 by Jacoby Brissett, three by Tua Tagovailoa) this week. That is probably the most targets in a recreation and not using a catch this 12 months.

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