Waiver Wire Week 6: Kadarius Toney is Right here to Keep

The Giants are not any strangers to huge receiver breakouts. They’ve had them in pedigreed draft picks similar to Odell Beckham and Hakeem Nicks. They’ve had them in improvement prospects similar to Victor Cruz. However I am unsure they’ve ever seen one like Kadarius Toney, who overcame accidents to complementary offensive stars Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley to chase the rookie receiving yards document and emerge as the highest waiver wire possibility for Week 6.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo.

Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants

12%/17%

I wasn’t optimistic for Toney’s rookie season. He wanted three years to graduate past a two-catch-per-game gadget participant at Florida. The Giants appeared to pick him twentieth within the draft in a panic after the Eagles traded in entrance of them and chosen a extra completed undersized receiver in DeVonta Smith. And Toney missed the majority of the offseason from a mixture of a contract dispute, COVID, and accidents. However Toney erased all of these issues in a single great breakout of 10 catches and 189 yards. He broke Odell Beckham’s rookie receiving yards document with the group and will have pushed the brand new document additional if he hadn’t thrown a punch and been ejected with time left within the fourth quarter.

There are caveats to throw at Sunday’s efficiency even past the mood tantrum. The Giants had been already lacking Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton for hamstring accidents and misplaced Kenny Golladay to a knee damage barely a 3rd of the best way into the sport. Behind by a number of scores, quarterback substitute Mike Glennon had little selection however to fling the ball at Toney. However I feel it will be overthinking issues to make use of these caveats to dissuade a serious FAB bid. Toney didn’t appear like a product of circumstances. He ran a various route tree and confirmed off an entire receiver ability set. For me, the spotlight was a 26-yard sideline catch that confirmed a leaping capability and physique management I did not count on from a perceived uncooked 6-foot-0 and 193-pound receiver.

And since I really feel I can belief Toney’s ability set, I select to belief the latest rookie receiver precedents. There have been 14 rookie receivers with 150-yard video games prior to now decade. Three of them completed as WR1s in PPR codecs. Three completed as WR2s. 4 completed as WR3s. Three completed as WR4s. And only one failed to satisfy any of these requirements of fantasy utility. I count on Toney to maintain his fantasy worth whilst his Giants teammates return to well being.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 51%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: Sure

Alex Collins, RB, Seattle Seahawks

42%/37%

The Seahawks by no means absolutely defined the extent of Chris Carson’s neck damage, they usually barely had time to on a brief week earlier than enjoying the Rams final Thursday evening. Alex Collins supplied an honest line of 17 touches and 72 yards however failed to attain. And that could be the most effective you see from him this season if the group’s 10 off days permit Carson time to completely get better and face the Steelers subsequent Sunday evening. However you do not have to learn an excessive amount of between head coach Pete Carroll’s traces to consider that Carson is a query mark for Week 6 and should usually be coping with a critical damage. If that is the case, Collins deserves each little bit of my advisable 26% FAB bid. His 71% snap and 60.0% carry shares on Thursday mirrored Carson’s 71% and 67.4% shares from Weeks 1 and a pair of when he was absolutely wholesome. Backfield teammates DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer performed simply 22% and 12% of snaps on Thursday, respectively. Collins appears like an old-school every-down handcuff, and with the uncertainty of his starter, Collins stands out as the most dear handcuff in soccer even with an unappealing Week 6 matchup with the Steelers and their seventh ranked run protection DVOA and with out quarterback Russell Wilson for at the very least just a few weeks.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 26%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

8%/17%

In comparison with Collins, Williams has the cleaner path to short-term enjoying time. Clyde Edwards-Helaire sprained his MCL on Sunday evening and likely will miss the following a number of weeks. However I do not belief Williams to dominate his backfield in touches the best way that Collins did on Thursday. Williams managed that on Sunday evening, seeing 5 carries and 5 targets in comparison with simply two and two for teammate Jerick McKinnon. However these two Chiefs backs cut up the snaps rather more evenly at 43% and 31%. Even with Edwards-Helaire wholesome in September, Williams paced his backfield with 1.6 anticipated dashing and receiving touchdowns. And I’ll in all probability chase these touchdowns on what’s going to nonetheless doubtless be the league’s No. 1 DVOA offense although 5 weeks. However take into account your fantasy group’s short- and long-term wants earlier than you exhaust your FAB for Williams. I do not count on him to rival the workloads of latest handcuff starters similar to Alexander Mattison or Damien Williams.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 21%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Eljiah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers

68%/68%

I used to be shocked to see Mitchell make it again from his shoulder damage for Week 5 when the 49ers have their bye in Week 6 and will have prolonged his rehab one other two weeks due to it. However I wasn’t shocked to see Mitchell reassert his function because the group’s lead again as quickly as he performed. Mitchell noticed a 54.4% carry share in Weeks 1 and a pair of earlier than his damage and took 9 of the group’s 12 non-quarterback carries on Sunday. His general 31.0% carry share might look worse, however that is solely as a result of Trey Lance took 16 carries himself. That’s unlikely to proceed—both Lance will develop as a processor and a passer, or head coach Kyle Shanahan will return Jimmy Garoppolo to the lineup when he’s recovered from his calf damage, very doubtless in Week 7 after the bye. And that makes Mitchell a transparent RB2 along with his large 68% versus 3% enjoying time edge over fellow rookie again Trey Sermon. Decide Mitchell up in case you play within the near a 3rd of leagues the place he was dropped. Simply be sure to have a bench spot for him this week with the 49ers on bye.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 12%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

36%/47%

Lance will not play in Week 6 with the 49ers on bye. And he appears unlikely to play in Week 7, at which level incumbent quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will have had three weeks to get better from a non-serious calf damage. However Lance supplied the rationale to stay along with his fantasy stash in what might show to be a spot begin in Week 5. He might have underwhelmed as a passer with an interception and eight.3% completions below expectation per Next Gen Stats. However he did what fantasy gamers want their quarterbacks to do: ran the ball. His 16 carries for 89 yards elevated his carry share to 41.4% from the final two weeks. The run-heaviest quarterbacks excel in fantasy regardless of their passing success. Final yr, Lamar Jackson paced his place with a 30.2% carry share that’s nicely beneath Lance’s present mark as a starter.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 11%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Payments

60%/63%

If Sanders hadn’t settled the talk of his or Cole Beasley’s fantasy choice with two touchdowns in Week 3, he definitely did with one other two touchdowns in Week 5. There was little doubt that Sanders would have the scoring edge between these two. Nonetheless, Sanders has exceeded my expectations in each his 4 precise touchdowns and his 2.9 anticipated touchdowns based mostly on the place he has seen his targets. That latter whole is tied for eighth-most amongst all huge receivers. In the meantime, Sanders has maintained a snap share above 70% all 5 weeks whereas Beasley has trended down from a 91% snap share in Week 1 to a 60%, 66%, 60%, and now 39% share in Weeks 2 to five. Sanders appears just like the clear second possibility in an interesting fantasy offense.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 8%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Payments

70%/78%

And the tight finish Knox stands out as the third possibility. His 117 yards and a landing from Sunday evening had been considerably lucky. He contributed half of that manufacturing on a 53-yard landing catch when quarterback Josh Allen rolled his option to a protection breakdown. However Knox additionally has a 13.5% goal share that’s Nineteenth-highest amongst tight ends. He has performed greater than 70% of offensive snaps in 4 straight video games after reaching that threshold simply 3 times all of final season. And whereas his 2.6 anticipated touchdowns don’t absolutely help his 5 precise scores—his 2.6-touchdown surplus is the very best at his place—that former whole is the second-most amongst all tight ends. Like Sanders, Knox appears like one in all Allen’s most well-liked finish zone targets. And that would buoy top-10 tight finish worth even when Knox falls wanting that normal when it comes to his goal share.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 7%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins

77%/73%

Gaskin hit lots of waiver wires after a two-carry, zero-target disappearing act in Week 4. However with the hindsight of his five-carry, 10-target rebound on Sunday, that Week 4 stinker appears like an apparent outlier. Throughout the 5 weeks, Gaskin has performed 54%, 61%, 52%, 23%, and 69% of offensive snaps and seen 14, 9, 16, two, and 15 touches. I can not clarify what occurred two weeks in the past. Head coach Brian Flores made no indication of an damage, and nobody I noticed reported on one. However I can solely assume that there was a fireplace with that smoke. Gaskin appears more likely to fall wanting his bell-cow preseason expectations. However as a lead again with 5 or extra targets in all however that mysterious Week 4, Gaskin ought to be rostered even in shallow fantasy leagues.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 6%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

65%/54%

In comparison with Gaskin, Carter has a a lot simpler enjoying time development to unpack. His snap share has elevated from 25% in Week 1 to 45%, 43%, 51%, and 52% the final 4 weeks. And his whole touches have elevated from 5 to 13, 11, 14, and 13. None of these totals wow. His general 44.8% carry and 9.4% goal shares are simply thirtieth and forty fourth amongst operating backs. However Carter is just a few extra notches on an upward trajectory away from clear flex worth. And people notches may occur by Week 7 with the Jets coming into their bye this week and with that probability to follow and reevaluate their roster and play selections. If in case you have a bench spot to spare, speculate on Carter’s continued rookie development.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 4%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

AJ Dillon, RB, Inexperienced Bay Packers

56%/66%

In contrast to Gaskin or Carter, Dillon doesn’t have a practical probability at a lead function this yr—at the very least not whereas Aaron Jones is wholesome and doing issues like this. Nonetheless, I feel Dillon has greater than handcuff worth. His snap share has but to extend previous 40%, however his touches have elevated from 5, six, and eight the primary three weeks to 16 and 12 the final two weeks. In the meantime, the 6-foot-0, 247-pound Dillon greater than doubled his crimson zone workload with 5 touches there in Week 5 versus simply two mixed in September. The Packers might select to run Dillon on these punishing performs close to the tip zone to assist preserve Jones wholesome. And in the event that they do, it may push Dillon previous the low-end flex ceiling of his predecessor Jamaal Williams.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 4%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

64%/76%

Mattison is only a handcuff. But when Collins is not essentially the most invaluable a kind of in fantasy nowadays, Mattison have to be. He crammed in for an injured Dalvin Cook dinner in Weeks 3 and 5 and noticed 32 touches each video games. Backside-half Seahawks and Lions run defenses might deserve a little bit of the credit score for that, however Mattison appears poised to play each down and dominate his backfield touches every time Cook dinner misses time. That is greater than most handcuffs can confidently declare. However talking of confidence, I do not know when Cook dinner will return from his ankle damage. The Vikings haven’t been clear on the severity of that damage. After Cook dinner returned for a lesser 49% snap share in Week 4, I anticipated him to play his regular lion’s share on Sunday. Till we’ve got readability, it’s best to roster Mattison in each league.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 4%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

5%/19%

Herbert might have bested teammate Damien Williams with 18 versus 16 carries and a 53% versus 48% snap share on Sunday. However I do not consider that will have occurred in a more in-depth contest. Williams took 9 of the group’s first 11 operating again carries and ceded lots of work to the rookie with the Bears up a number of scores within the third and fourth quarters. Nonetheless, Herbert calls for a fantasy look due to how he performed. His 2.8 yards after contact per attempt will doubtless steal headlines and will clarify the group’s choice to shut with him in an effort to kill clock. However I used to be additional impressed by his imaginative and prescient that noticed him chopping again to open lanes that weren’t apparent by the meant hole.

A full-on committee would harm Herbert like it will Williams, and we could also be headed there if receiving again Tarik Cohen can return to the sphere when he’s eligible to come back off the PUP checklist in Week 7. However Herbert teased a possible on Sunday I did not count on from a sixth-round rookie. As such, I would favor to roster him for just a few weeks identical to I’d his teammate Williams to see if workloads change with regular starter David Montgomery poised to overlook the following month or extra.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 3%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Devontae Booker, RB, New York Giants

4%/7%

I do know Saquon Barkley might have superhuman therapeutic powers, however I am nonetheless shocked that the cleat he took to his ankle on Sunday may only sideline him for one week. That is an necessary timeline as a result of, whereas Booker appears like a clear-cut handcuff after enjoying 88% of snaps on Sunday, the Giants draw Aaron Donald and the Rams in Week 6. They could have underwhelmed thus far this season, however the Rams had the second-best run protection by DVOA final yr and simply held Alex Collins to three.7 yards per keep it up Thursday evening. Booker appears unlikely to make my RB2 cutoff this week and as such calls for solely a modest FAB bid until the information on Barkley takes a flip for the more severe.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

6%/7%

Stevenson hasn’t crushed the door down for a 2% FAB bid. After a Week 1 fumble, he was a wholesome scratch in Weeks 2 by means of 4, the final of which got here after James White’s season-ending hip damage. And when he lastly returned to motion in Week 5, Stevenson averaged an anemic 2.1 yards per carry and didn’t see a goal. Damien Harris will in all probability proceed his run because the Patriots lead again. However I feel Stevenson is value a speculative add as a result of Harris has fallen wanting a standout begin to his 2021, too. His bottom-three -21.2% dashing DVOA is probably not his fault. The Patriots have a bottom-three run-blocking offensive line with 3.20 adjusted line yards. And to his credit score, Harris has run for an honest 2.0 yards after contact per try. However Harris additionally fumbled for his second time on Sunday, and that turnover might push this backfield to the committee his and Stevenson’s respective 33% and 34% Week 5 snap shares would counsel—even when that cut up was extra the results of a Harris injury scare this time round. Even a 60/40 cut up may work for Stevenson on the quick finish if he can parlay his 6-foot-0, 227-pound body into crimson zone work and a run at eight or extra touchdowns.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

72%/75%

I have not seen any latest updates on Jeudy’s timeline of restoration from the high-ankle sprain he suffered in Week 1. However Ian Rapoport’s settled estimate of return on the time was round six weeks. That might put Jeudy on observe to return in Week 7 with a number of weeks of buffer earlier than the Broncos would doubtless take into account pushing him previous their Week 11 bye. If I had the roster room, I’d add him this week. Jeudy noticed a standout seven targets on simply 31 snaps earlier than his damage. These 0.23 targets per snap would have had him first amongst common receivers in 2020. Diontae Johnson was the one wideout with a 0.20 price over 50 or extra targets final season.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Jamal Agnew, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

0%/0%

A lot for my thought that Laviska Shenault would threaten a top-20 goal share with DJ Chark sidelined with a damaged ankle. According to Mike Clay, the Jaguars determined to shift Shenault to an out of doors function to extra instantly change what Chark supplied the group. And whereas that would supply fantasy gamers an occasional 58-yard catch just like the one he had on Sunday, Shenault may even see extra underwhelming three-target video games as one thing of a sq. peg for the spherical gap of his new project. If you wish to chase catches in a deeper PPR format, Agnew stands out as the higher guess. With Chark out, Agnew noticed his snap share spike from 14% in Week 4 to 63% in Week 5. And he tied for the group lead with eight targets enjoying from the slot the place Shenault noticed a 19.9% goal share the primary 4 weeks that was forty third amongst huge receivers.

Really helpful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Gamers on Extra Than 80% of Rosters to Add

Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams (97%/97%)
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (94%/92%)
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (92%/93%)
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Atlanta Falcons (90%/89%)
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (89%/89%)
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (89%/89%)
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (89%/87%)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (89%/86%)
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (88%/92%)
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (87%/89%)
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (86%/79%)
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (84%/85%)
Damien Williams, RB, Chicago Bears (82%/79%)
Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams (78%/93%)
Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Payments (77%/84%)
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (68%/83%)
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (67%/80%)

Gamers on Extra Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (88%/80%)
Kenyan Drake, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (72%/65%)
Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns (72%/63%)
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (71%/74%)
Will Fuller, WR, Miami Dolphins (60%/41%)
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (59%/76%)
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Soccer Staff (51%/31%)
DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (50%/28%)
Sony Michel, RB, Los Angeles Rams (49%/50%)
Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (44%/47%)
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants (44%/41%)
Samaje Perine, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (33%/27%)
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (32%/37%)
James White, RB, New England Patriots (27%/12%)
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers (25%/19%)
Phillip Lindsay, RB, Houston Texans (23%/20%)
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears (12%/23%)

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