Taysom Hill, Fantasy Hero | Soccer Outsiders

NFL Week 15 – This time final season, rookie operating backs resembling Cam Akers and J.Okay. Dobbins have been altering fantasy fortunes with their late-season breakouts. And though Javonte Williams has performed the identical the final couple of weeks, his pair of Sunday touchdowns might show to be his fantasy swansong for 2021 with teammate and backfield work-sharer Melvin Gordon again wholesome and with no extra Lions video games on the Broncos’ schedule. As an alternative, the fantasy managers in want of a lifeline initially of the fantasy playoffs might must depend on a quarterback.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo.

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints

57%/50%

Hill self-combusted with 4 interceptions in his 2021 debut as a starter in Week 13—maybe due to his finger damage, stress from his Cowboys opponent, his limitations as a passer, or some mixture of the three. But when that represents the worst of Hill’s doable outcomes, I am going to take that in fantasy. That is as a result of he offset the turnovers with 101 yards on 11 carries and completed fourth on the place in fantasy scoring. In the meantime, Week 14 demonstrated the ceiling. Hill had modest passing numbers however didn’t throw an interception, and he ran for 73 yards and a pair of touchdowns on one other 11 carries. Hill now has 29.4 fantasy factors simply from his speeding the final two weeks. That is the second-most of all gamers behind simply Dalvin Cook dinner at 32.5. In the meantime, Hill is as much as a 21.6-point common from the entire of his fantasy contributions in six begins in 2020 and 2021. That quantity would land him fifth amongst 2021 quarterbacks, simply behind Kyler Murray at 21.9. Hill is hardly Murray’s equal when it comes to actual soccer worth. However that simply does not matter for fantasy together with his Saints’ lack of compelling alternate options on the place. I believe Hill is a secure top-10 choice at his place, even in opposition to a Bucs protection within the high 10 in run protection DVOA. Josh Allen demonstrated how completely different quarterback carries are to defend with 109 yards and a landing in opposition to the Bucs final Sunday afternoon. And I anticipate Hill to take pleasure in comparable success in opposition to Tampa Bay on Sunday night time.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 100%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: Sure

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks

9%/20%

A minimum of within the half of leagues the place Taysom Hill is rostered, Penny will seemingly be the most popular waiver commodity of Week 15. And after his 138-yard, two-touchdown outburst on Sunday, I am unable to disagree with that perspective with any confidence. Penny dominated his Seahawks backfield with 17 touches versus simply eight for Alex Collins and two for DeeJay Dallas. And Penny performed 57% of snaps, a season excessive by 14% and a charge Collins has not touched since earlier than his groin damage in Weeks 5 and 6. However I might nonetheless be nervous to exhaust the majority of my remaining FAB for the brand new Seahawks starter. For one, Penny benefited from 32- and 47-yard breakaway carries. And for one more, Penny’s schedule will flip from pleasant going through the Texans final week to unfriendly going through the Rams this week. The Texans are the No. 28 run protection by DVOA, they usually improve run performs by 13% per sport and speeding yards and touchdowns by 13% and 27% per carry. In distinction, the Rams have the No. 2 run protection and reduce speeding yards and touchdowns by 11% and 18% per carry. The latter staff can be a troublesome matchup for any again. However they might be notably troublesome for Penny behind an offensive line that’s seventh worst in run-blocking (3.98 adjusted line yards) and with teammate Travis Homer a risk to return and eat into an already small goal share. All instructed, I anticipate to rank Penny as a back-end flex choice in PPR codecs this week. And until you’re determined for a again to start out this week, I might reasonably save my FAB for a possible Week 16 damage beneficiary than spend what I anticipate it might take to land Penny this week.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 21%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

1%/2%

If the NFL may redo its schedule, they could alternate that Sunday night time Saints-Bucs sport for the Chargers-Chiefs Thursday night time providing. However since these matchups are set in stone, the latter provides an fascinating wrinkle for fantasy gamers. Keenan Allen is on the COVID reserve checklist. And though the star receiver is reportedly vaccinated and could be activated as quickly as he turns in a pair of adverse checks, he seemingly has COVID and should due to this fact want greater than the ten days he’ll have since his first constructive check to get well. If I rostered Allen or wanted a large receiver for Week 15 for no matter purpose, I might deal with the rookie Palmer like a top-shelf operating again handcuff. Palmer demonstrated his worth as an alternative on Sunday with 66 yards and a landing on seven targets, probably the most on the staff. And whereas Jalen Guyton loved the higher fantasy day, the latter participant noticed the majority of his manufacturing on one 59-yard landing cross and performed simply 59% of the staff’s offensive snaps, an analogous charge to the 53% to 55% ones he performed the earlier three weeks. Guyton is a deep risk and will present an explosive play any week. However Palmer performed the everyday Allen function, growing his snap share from between 30% to 42% from the final month to 87% on Sunday. And with Justin Herbert as his quarterback, Palmer may have WR2 worth this week even together with his restricted skilled expertise.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 11%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

D’Onta Foreman, RB, Tennessee Titans

58%/60%

Foreman might not have Penny’s upside as a transparent No. 1 in his backfield. In Week 14, Foreman performed fewer snaps (32%) than his extra versatile teammates Jeremy McNichols (38%) and Dontrell Hilliard (34%). And he might owe his carry benefit of 13 versus eight for McNichols and 6 for Hilliard to a run-benefiting sport script because the Titans blew out the Jaguars. But when these committee considerations reduce his required waiver expenditure into the only digits of FAB proportion, then Foreman might be an underrated fantasy choice in at the least deeper codecs due to his landing potential. The 236-pound again is the clear inheritor to Derrick Henry’s early-down function with the staff and has been unfortunate to attain simply as soon as in Weeks 12 and 14 together with his 1.5 anticipated speeding and receiving touchdowns. That former whole matches Hilliard in the identical timeframe, however Foreman has dominated Hilliard with 10 versus one crimson zone carries and targets and 4 versus one carries and targets inside 5 yards of the top zone. With a watch to that essential fantasy consideration, Foreman must be a good flex choice in Week 15. His opposing Steelers might have an intimidating defensive popularity, however they rank simply twenty fourth in run protection DVOA this season and are small boosters of run performs per sport and speeding yards and touchdowns per carry.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 6%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

42%/56%

Invoice Belichick was his normal chatty self and provided a non-update on Damien Harris’ hamstring damage to reporters popping out of a Week 14 bye. And so until there may be extra definitive information on Harris earlier than the waiver deadlines on Tuesday night time, I might roster Stevenson as a precedence handcuff. He will be the No. 2 again on the Patriots, however Stevenson has higher effectivity numbers in his 52.0% speeding success charge and a couple of.6 yards after contact per try than Harris does at 49.4% and a couple of.4. He can be an RB2 if Harris missed this Saturday’s Colts sport even within the dome in Indianapolis and even going through a Colts protection that’s higher in opposition to the run (fourth in DVOA) than the cross (fifteenth), elements that ought to swing the Patriots’ run/cross ratio dramatically again towards the cross.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 5%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Jeff Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers

45%/63%

It is probably not truthful to assert that Wilson dominated the 49ers backfield on Sunday at the same time as he out-snapped teammate JaMycal Hasty 59% to twenty% and out-touched him 13 to 0. Alleged huge receiver Deebo Samuel was again from a one-game absence and again to his breakaway carry methods. Samuel has 5 or extra carries in 4 straight video games. And he has 5 speeding touchdowns in these final 4 video games, greater than twice as many because the 49ers’ precise operating backs can declare in that point. However Wilson was a lead again in Week 14 and might be once more in Week 15 with Elijah Mitchell nonetheless recovering from a concussion and a knee damage. And though Samuel has made it a moot level in latest weeks, Wilson can be a great guess to attain if the 49ers had extra possibilities within the crimson zone. He’s ninth amongst backs with 50 or extra touches with 4.98 touchdowns and twenty second with 4.08 anticipated touchdowns per 100 carries and targets because the begin of 2020.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 5%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams

72%/71%

Star Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham mixed for 200 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night time. That overshadowed Jefferson’s 58 yards and a rating. And also you is likely to be tempted to assume Jefferson was fortunate to attain with simply two targets. However Jefferson has adopted the script for nearly two months at this level. Main into this weekend, Jefferson had an 18.6% goal share since Week 7 that was simply thirty eighth amongst huge receivers. However he was tied with Ja’Marr Chase for the positional lead with 4.3 anticipated touchdowns in that timeframe. And Jefferson noticed one other two finish zone targets on Monday: one which he nullified with an offensive cross interference and one which Matthew Stafford overthrow by way of the again of the top zone. He could also be his staff’s No. 3 receiver, however Jefferson ought to proceed to attain and assist a high-end flex worth due to it.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 5%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

11%/12%

St. Brown’s game-winning landing catch from Week 13 might seem to be a fluke with the Lions winless of their different 11 video games and with the questionable Vikings defensive approach that allowed it to occur. However the rookie receiver is trying much less and fewer a fantasy fluke of late. After taking part in 75% of snaps simply as soon as the primary 10 weeks, St. Brown has performed 85%, 98%, 96%, and 75% of snaps the final 4 weeks. And he has seen 12 targets every of the final two weeks. His whole of 24 targets since Week 13 is tied for third-highest at his place behind simply Chris Godwin (34) and Justin Jefferson (29). And whereas the Lions’ Week 15 opponent, the Cardinals, rank third in cross protection DVOA, they’ve performed extra injury to No. 1 huge receivers than slot receivers this season. They’ve reduce the previous gamers’ landing charge by 24% however elevated the latter’s charge by 31%.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 5%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2%/2%

If each Phillip Lindsay and Jackson have been short-term No. 1 backs with comparable circumstances, I might seemingly want the latter regardless of the previous’s higher accomplishments and popularity. However Lindsay strikes me as the higher FAB gamble because the extra seemingly of the 2 to have a workload increase in Week 15. Austin Ekeler left Sunday’s Chargers sport with an ankle damage, however head coach Brandon Staley told reporters that Ekeler was OK. He could also be able to play even on the staff’s brief week. And whereas Jackson has greater than doubled his teammates Joshua Kelley’s and Larry Rountree’s totals with 11 versus 5 and two targets this season, the trio has performed eerily comparable totals of 108, 106, and 107 snaps this season. With all three more likely to be energetic if Ekeler could not go, Jackson can be a troublesome participant to belief in a committee within the fantasy playoffs, particularly going through a Chiefs staff that has ascended to 3rd in run protection DVOA since Week 6.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 3%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

63%/63%

Carter is probably not a reliable fantasy choice in Week 15 both. He’s eligible to return from injured reserve, however high-ankle sprains have variable restoration schedules. I might want to see him play a sport earlier than I began him in an essential fantasy matchup. However when you have the bench area to stash him, Carter has great upside for the ultimate weeks of the fantasy playoffs. He led all operating backs with 7.8 targets per sport between his bye in Week 6 and his final wholesome begin in Week 10. And that speeding and receiving versatility affords him an interesting fantasy ground with the Jets more likely to fall behind the Dolphins and Bucs the following few weeks and compelled to throw.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 3%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Russell Gage, WR, Atlanta Falcons

45%/52%

Gage doesn’t share Tyreek Hill’s elite pace or Hunter Renfrow’s distinctive short-area quickness. However Gage has matched his fellow slot receivers with a 24.7% goal share since Week 8 when Calvin Ridley stepped away from his Falcons staff. Ridley may conceivably return to the staff on brief discover. However till he does, Gage is their de facto No. 1 receiver and a good flex choice in PPR codecs.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Okay.J. Osborn, WR, Minnesota Vikings

27%/38%

Osborn has a shorter runway of potential fantasy worth together with his teammate Adam Thielen out with a high-ankle sprain. However with Thielen absent the majority of the final two weeks, Osborn has mirrored Gage’s bump in quantity with a 22.2% goal share that’s twenty sixth amongst huge receivers. And after taking part in between 48% and 63% of snaps in his earlier 10 video games, Osborn has jumped to 92% and 86% snap shares the final two weeks. Osborn faces some uncertainty with the Vikings poised to play on Monday night time. But when Thielen is dominated out of that contest earlier than the early Sunday video games, you possibly can belief Osborn because the Vikings’ short-term No. 2 receiver and a back-end flex choice.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Allen Lazard, WR, Inexperienced Bay Packers

4%/4%

The place Osborn elevated his fantasy potential with a transfer from the slot to out huge, Lazard might have performed the other. Along with his teammate Randall Cobb on injured reserve and perhaps out for the season with a core muscle damage, Lazard paced the Packers with 17 slot snaps on Sunday night time. And whereas he’s an odd match together with his 6-foot-5 and 227-pound body, Lazard excelled in his new function. His six catches and 7 targets on Sunday have been each season highs. And Lazard had caught three passes simply as soon as earlier than all season. I would wish to see one other standout efficiency earlier than I trusted Lazard in my deeper fantasy playoff lineups the best way I might Gage or Osborn. However Lazard may clarify an elevated workload together with his new function, and so I might like to stash him on my fantasy benches if I had the area.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

70%/66%

With an 18.6% goal share in Weeks 6 to 11 that was Eleventh-highest amongst tight ends, Freiermuth appeared just like the Steelers’ reply for an injured JuJu Smith-Schuster. He does not anymore. He has fallen to a ten.1% goal share the final three weeks that’s barely half of his earlier share and misses the highest 30 at his place. However Freiermuth has at the least continued to attain. He has two touchdowns within the final three weeks. And he’s tied with George Kittle for probably the most touchdowns amongst tight ends (six) and ranks third on the place with 4.1 anticipated touchdowns since Week 6. Freiermuth and Hunter Henry are the 2 greatest TE2 bets to attain touchdowns every week.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Jordan Howard, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

8%/8%

I’ve misinterpret the Eagles backfield a number of occasions in latest weeks and would not really feel assured in my carry and goal projections for Week 15 if everybody performed. However each Howard and Miles Sanders are contending with knee accidents. And whereas Sanders is an apparent begin if the previous again misses one other week, Howard will be the similar if Sanders sits as an alternative. Howard has averaged 12.8 carries per sport in his 4 wholesome video games this season and would rival carry-skewing backs resembling Chuba Hubbard and Rex Burkhead for fantasy worth if he wrangled a No. 1 function this week.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans

77%/76%

Jones has suffered a dramatic fall from fantasy grace together with his new Titans staff this season. His 18.1% goal share in his wholesome video games is simply 51st-highest amongst common huge receivers. However Jones led the Titans with six targets in Week 14. And he did that regardless of taking part in simply 45% of snaps in his return from injured reserve. Jones had performed 70% of snaps or extra in three of his earlier six video games with the staff. And whereas I would wish to see that latter benchmark once more to belief it to occur, Jones has that potential and is a compelling bench stash due to it. Simply keep in mind that his teammate A.J. Brown is eligible to return off injured reserve this week. The Titans might not have the appropriate offense to assist a number of receivers in fantasy.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

50%/45%

With myriad shoulder and hamstring accidents, Parker has performed one fewer sport than even Jones this season. However not like the previous Falcons star, Parker has seen a good workload when he has discovered the sector. His 7.8 targets per sport tie him for twentieth amongst receivers with as many or extra video games performed. Parker is not a No. 1 in an offense with an distinctive rookie in Jaylen Waddle, however Tua Tagovailoa throws lots of passes in his conservative, RPO-heavy offense and will assist a second receiver in fantasy due to it.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

16%/19%

Fields could not maintain tempo with the explosive Packers offense on Sunday night time. However with 224 yards and two touchdowns by way of the air and one other 74 yards on the bottom, he made a case for his fantasy consideration. And Fields had been trending towards fantasy relevance earlier than his rib damage. After averaging simply 19.0 cross makes an attempt and three.0 carries per sport in his first three begins, Fields has improved to 29.6 cross makes an attempt and eight.2 carries in his final 5 wholesome begins—excluding the Week 11 sport he exited early with the damage. And whereas he falls in need of Lamar Jackson’s standout charge of 34.8%, Fields has a 28.4% carry share since Week 6 that’s fourth-highest at his place and in vary with fantasy stars Jalen Hurts (30.9%) and Josh Allen (30.5%).

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Do you have to use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Gamers on Extra Than 80% of Rosters to Add

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (93%/96%)
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (91%/95%)
Odell Beckham, WR, Los Angeles Rams (90%/91%)
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (89%/88%)
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (88%/88%)
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (88%/88%)
Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (88%/83%)
AJ Dillon, RB, Inexperienced Bay Packers (87%/92%)
Melvin Gordon, RB, Denver Broncos (86%/90%)
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (86%/87%)
Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Payments (86%/83%)
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (85%/91%)
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (84%/86%)
Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers (84%/86%)
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (82%/89%)
Sony Michel, RB, Los Angeles Rams (78%/83%)
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos (76%/87%)
Devonta Freeman, RB, Baltimore Ravens (75%/83%)
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals (64%/86%)

Gamers on Extra Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns (91%/92%)
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (74%/79%)
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (69%/63%)
Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (64%/66%)
Marvin Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (64%/53%)
Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets (63%/63%)
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans (59%/66%)
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Payments (59%/58%)
Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants (59%/52%)
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (56%/47%)
Mike Davis, RB, Atlanta Falcons (51%/52%)
Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Payments (46%/42%)
Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets (43%/29%)
Kenyan Drake, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (40%/31%)
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks (37%/33%)
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams (36%/27%)
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Soccer Group (33%/30%)
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington Soccer Group (28%/34%)
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (26%/16%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (24%/15%)
DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (23%/13%)
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Soccer Group (22%/12%)
Robert Tonyan, TE, Inexperienced Bay Packers (20%/18%)
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (17%/21%)

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