Stafford, Kupp, Beckham Look to Shred 49ers

NFL Convention Championship – As tends to be the case with simply 4 groups left within the playoffs, the convention championship video games characteristic a number of the greatest quarterbacks and ability expertise within the sport. However earlier than you lean in your normal suspects similar to Patrick Mahomes and Joe Mixon this weekend, think about the matchups. As a result of whereas components similar to domes and weaker go defenses could solely imply a lot for particular person gamers, their results can multiply with the DFS lineup stacks {that a} weekend with simply 4 groups nearly requires.

The next tables characteristic the gamers with the very best and worst matchups of the week. Every listed participant exhibits a true-talent (TT) rating that represents how I might rank him with a superbly impartial sport context. Then, that rating is adjusted by including the context of the venue (Ven)—residence and street and dome and outdoors—the forecasted climate (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The road beneath these rankings exhibits how a lot these contextual components transfer projected PPR fantasy factors. That whole (Tot) quantity provides you a complete estimate of what number of fantasy factors the participant will rating this week roughly than his typical whole.

You may see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup changes and fantasy factors by subscribing to FO+.

Greatest Week 21 Matchups – All Gamers
Participant Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
C.Kupp LAR 1 SF Rk 1 1 1 1  
Pts   +2.2 0.0 +0.2 +2.4
M.Stafford LAR 1 SF Rk 3 2 2 2  
Pts   +1.9 0.0 0.0 +1.9
O.Beckham LAR 1 SF Rk 6 5 5 5  
Pts   +1.2 0.0 0.0 +1.2
D.Samuel SF 0 LAR Rk 3 3 3 3  
Pts   +0.7 0.0 -0.1 +0.6
C.Edwards-Helaire KC 1 CIN Rk 5 5 5 5  
Pts   -0.1 +0.1 +0.4 +0.4
J.McKinnon KC 1 CIN Rk 4 4 4 4  
Pts   0.0 +0.1 +0.3 +0.4
V.Jefferson LAR 1 SF Rk 12 11 11 11  
Pts   +0.4 0.0 0.0 +0.4
T.Higbee LAR 1 SF Rk 3 3 3 3  
Pts   +0.2 0.0 +0.1 +0.3
C.Uzomah CIN 0 KC Rk 3 4 4 4  
Pts   +0.1 0.0 +0.1 +0.2
B.Aiyuk SF 0 LAR Rk 7 7 7 7  
Pts   +0.3 0.0 -0.1 +0.2

Because of their upset of the defending champion Buccaneers, the Rams landed a house sport this weekend. And whereas that may not appear as large a cope with Kansas Metropolis forecasted for temperatures within the 40s with little wind and no precipitation this Sunday afternoon, think about that Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.1 extra fantasy factors per sport at residence than on the street in current seasons—break up between two groups within the Lions and Rams with dome stadiums. And that break up follows expectations since residence quarterbacks common 3% higher completion charges and 6% and 10% extra yards and touchdowns per go try in domes than they do in impartial contexts.

Kyle Shanahan has famously crushed his former mentee Sean McVay in six straight video games, however that appears to me to say extra concerning the Rams’ typical defensive leaning in the direction of stopping the go and Shanahan’s uncommon run-oriented offensive philosophy than it does concerning the reverse models. The 49ers have matured right into a top-six go protection DVOA together with the playoffs and lower passing yards and touchdowns by 2% and 6% per try. However the 49ers stay higher in run protection (second) and subsequently lower opposing run performs by 6% per sport. And in that method, the 49ers have an analogous break up to the Bucs protection Stafford simply torched for 366 yards and two touchdowns when Cam Akers struggled to maneuver the ball on the bottom.

Greatest DraftKings Values: Cooper Kupp ($1,700 underpriced at $8,800), Cam Akers ($1,300 underpriced at $5,000), Jerick McKinnon ($1,000 underpriced at $5,100), Tyreek Hill ($900 underpriced at $7,000), Jauan Jennings ($800 underpriced at $3,200), C.J. Uzomah ($700 underpriced at $3,400), Odell Beckham ($600 underpriced at $5,100)

Greatest FanDuel Values: Cam Akers ($700 underpriced at $6,200), Jauan Jennings ($600 underpriced at $4,900), Jimmy Garoppolo ($500 underpriced at $6,200) , Odell Beckham ($400 underpriced at $6,300), Jerick McKinnon ($400 underpriced at $6,200), Brandon Aiyuk ($400 underpriced at $5,600), Matthew Stafford ($200 underpriced at $7,500)

The Rams is probably not my favourite staff to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl, however they’re my favourite staff to stack in DFS this Sunday. Cooper Kupp is so productive that his prime shelf $8,800 DraftKings wage nonetheless pops as the most important underpricing on the platform. And Odell Beckham has a good $600 worth and, subjectively to me, may outproduce his projection for the reason that 49ers just lately added prime cornerback Emmanuel Moseley again to their lineup and will subsequently have a comparatively larger deficiency on the second cornerback spot than that they had in a lot of the second half of the season.

I in all probability will not persuade anybody to play the 49ers passing sport after Jimmy Garoppolo threw for simply 172 and 131 yards the final two weeks and did not rating. However I am going to not less than level out that throwing 25 and 19 go makes an attempt is a privilege of a staff in a positive sport script. And the Cowboys and Packers invited a run-heavy plan in any case with dramatically higher go defenses than run defenses by DVOA. The Rams are sturdy in each respects, sadly for 49ers. However which will simply imply Garoppolo must air it out extra in a deficit. He threw 32 passes for 316 yards with these circumstances in a Week 17 sport within the dome in Los Angeles that the 49ers erased a 17-pont deficit to win late.

Garoppolo is tougher than his Rams counterpart to stack. However you doubtless would need to think about Deebo Samuel regardless of your roster composition. And Jauan Jennings is a robust worth in each DFS platforms. After failing to play even 20% of snaps in a sport the primary half the common season, Jennings has performed greater than 50% of snaps the final three weeks and has 5 or extra targets in 5 of his final seven video games. And guessing proper on a Garoppolo-to-Jennings landing would web you a serious leg up on the undoubtedly extra frequent Rams, Chiefs, and Bengals stacks of your competitors.

Most of the Chiefs are overpriced as normal in DFS this week. However Jerick McKinnon is the exception at simply $5,100 and $6,200 in DraftKings and FanDuel. His leap to a 78% snap share within the wild-card spherical may have been a fluke since Clyde Edwards-Helaire remained out with a shoulder damage and Darrel Williams had an injured toe and fumbled early. However McKinnon performed an analogous 70% snap share in his encore with Edwards-Helaire on the sector, and the early returns counsel McKinnon’s velocity presents the Chiefs a brand new dimension of their receiving and particularly display sport. And that proclivity has netted McKinnon six and 5 catches for 81 and 54 yards the final two weeks. I count on comparable towards the Bengals.

Worst Week 21 Matchups – All Gamers
Participant Tm Hm Opp Lbl TT Ven Wea Opp Tot
J.Chase CIN 0 KC Rk 4 4 4 4  
Pts   -0.8 +0.1 -0.2 -0.9
J.Mixon CIN 0 KC Rk 1 1 1 1  
Pts   -0.3 +0.1 -0.6 -0.8
J.Burrow CIN 0 KC Rk 2 3 3 3  
Pts   -0.8 +0.1 +0.2 -0.5
P.Mahomes KC 1 CIN Rk 1 1 1 1  
Pts   -0.6 +0.1 +0.1 -0.4
T.Hill KC 1 CIN Rk 2 2 2 2  
Pts   -0.3 +0.2 -0.3 -0.4
T.Kelce KC 1 CIN Rk 1 1 1 1  
Pts   -0.5 0.0 +0.1 -0.4
C.Akers LAR 1 SF Rk 3 3 3 3  
Pts   +0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.3
T.Higgins CIN 0 KC Rk 5 6 6 6  
Pts   -0.5 -0.1 +0.3 -0.3
T.Boyd CIN 0 KC Rk 8 8 8 8  
Pts   -0.4 0.0 +0.2 -0.2
G.Kittle SF 0 LAR Rk 2 2 2 2  
Pts   +0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2

Overlook the Jimmy Garoppolo query. I know I can not speak you out of a Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase stack not even a month faraway from the Bengals’ first sport towards the Chiefs, when Burrow threw for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns and Chase accounted for 266 and three of them. Chase could properly supply a matchup drawback that the Chiefs merely can not remedy with their personnel and scheme. However Burrow loved that standout efficiency at residence, the place he has averaged 4.9 extra fantasy factors per sport than on the street in his profession. And over the broader schedule, the Chiefs have lower No. 1 receiver touchdowns by 26% and elevated No. 2 and slot receiver touchdowns by 68% and 25% per goal, each top-five in soccer. The Bengals appear to alternate between their large Chase and massive Tee Higgins video games in any case. And if it weren’t for the reminiscence of the early-January sport between the groups, this Sunday’s sport would appear as more likely to be a Higgins or Tyler Boyd showcase as a Chase one.

Nonetheless, I would not run from the Burrow-Chase stacks in each day codecs. The Chiefs are dramatically higher by staff DVOA. They usually may construct a lead that forces the Bengals to go to catch up. Normally, the Chiefs improve their opponents’ go performs by 2% per sport, top-10 in soccer. However the Bengals stars are priced with the reminiscence of their Week 17 outbursts in thoughts. And for me that makes them much less compelling as a stack even when they’ve a really actual probability for a repeat efficiency.

Worst DraftKings Values: George Kittle ($700 overpriced at $5,000), Sony Michel ($600 overpriced at $4,600), Samaje Perine ($600 overpriced at $4,200), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($600 overpriced at $5,300), Joe Burrow ($500 overpriced at $6,600), Brandon Aiyuk ($300 overpriced at $5,000), Van Jefferson ($300 overpriced at $3,900)

Worst FanDuel Values: Ja’Marr Chase ($800 overpriced at $8,000), Joe Mixon ($700 overpriced at $8,200), Travis Kelce ($600 overpriced at $7,700), Sony Michel ($500 overpriced at $5,300), Samaje Perine ($200 overpriced at $4,700), Joe Burrow ($200 overpriced at $7,500), Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($200 overpriced at $5,700)

Apart from the Bengals triumvirate, the majority of the worst DFS values this week are considerably apparent for his or her lowered roles of late. Sony Michel has dropped from a 98% to a 19% snap share over the past 4 weeks as Cam Akers has made his outstanding restoration from an Achilles damage and recaptured his bell-cow position with the Rams. Clyde Edwards-Helaire performed simply 30% of snaps in his return on Sunday, and McKinnon appears like the highest again in Kansas Metropolis. And Samaje Perine has seen even his backup workload fade to only two touches the final two weeks with the Rams clearly comfy using Joe Mixon nearly completely of their crucial playoff video games.

The standout overpricing that does not match that mould is George Kittle at $5,000 in DraftKings. And whereas Kittle is one other participant you won’t need to miss of each DFS lineup you make this Sunday—particularly in case you are daring sufficient to stack with Jimmy Garoppolo—the Rams do seem to be a very troublesome matchup for opposing tight ends. They’ve the fourth-lowest DVOA on throws to the place and lower tight finish yards and touchdowns by 6% and 45% per goal. And Kittle was much less concerned as a receiver with simply 10 catches and 60 yards mixed within the two regular-season 49ers-Rams matchups and appears much more essential as a blocker this Sunday with All-Professional left sort out Trent Williams combating an ankle sprain.

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