Schultz, Cowboys Ought to Thrive at Residence
NFL Wild Card – I assume even an 18-week common season has to return to an finish. However whereas your conventional fantasy leagues could also be completed, there are many methods to get pleasure from fantasy soccer within the NFL playoffs. Bryan Knowles runs a employees playoff league that’s enjoyable and straightforward to emulate. And DFS is at all times an possibility so as to add slightly spice to the playoff matchups that, in case you’re like me, might not embrace your hometown groups.
The next tables function the gamers with the perfect and worst matchups of the week. Every listed participant exhibits a true-talent (TT) rating that represents how I might rank him with a wonderfully impartial recreation context. Then, that rating is adjusted by including the context of the venue (Ven)—house and highway and dome and outdoors—the forecasted climate (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The road beneath these rankings exhibits how a lot these contextual components transfer projected PPR fantasy factors. That whole (Tot) quantity offers you a complete estimate of what number of fantasy factors the participant will rating this week kind of than his typical whole.
You possibly can see our full weekly projections with projected stats, matchup changes and fantasy factors by subscribing to FO+.
|Greatest Week 19 Matchups – Quarterbacks|
The 4 outside video games have a minimum of some parts of climate. Cincinnati and Kansas Metropolis could have kickoff temperatures beneath freezing. Buffalo shall be bitterly chilly at 3 levels Fahrenheit. And whereas Tampa shall be comfy at 72 levels, it’s forecasted to have 18 mph sustained winds with gusts to 32 mph. In brief, it’s best to think about some dome stacks. I notably love just about all people within the 49ers-Cowboys recreation. The 49ers’ secondary was in shambles even earlier than the majority of their remaining secondary obtained COVID final week. Unsurprisingly then, their protection ranks second in run protection DVOA however simply sixteenth in cross protection, they usually minimize run performs by 4% per recreation and barely enhance passing touchdowns by 2% per try due to it. That is about pretty much as good as Dak Prescott might hope for in a playoff opponent, particularly coupled along with his regular tendency to attain 7.2 extra fantasy factors per recreation at house than on the highway.
The Cowboys protection is healthier towards the cross (second) than the run (sixteenth), a break up that’s unhealthy for opposing fantasy quarterbacks. However they make their largest influence with sacks and interceptions (improve by 92%, essentially the most in soccer), outcomes which might be worse in actuality than in typical fantasy scoring. In internet, count on Jimmy Garoppolo to be higher than normal because of a dome venue, which tends to extend passing yards and touchdowns by 4% and eight% per try even for quarterbacks on the highway. Garoppolo is my favourite cheap quarterback in DFS this week and a non-traditional stacking possibility with backfield teammates comparable to Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel. Fingers crossed for extra passing than dashing touchdowns within the crimson zone.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Jimmy Garoppolo ($800 underpriced at $5,300), Dak Prescott ($500 underpriced at $6,400), Matthew Stafford ($300 underpriced at $6,300)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Jimmy Garoppolo ($600 underpriced at $6,800), Ben Roethlisberger ($400 underpriced at $6,400), Matthew Stafford ($300 underpriced at $7,600)
Matthew Stafford has a much less excessive house/highway break up than Prescott in current seasons. However he has averaged 1.1 extra fantasy factors at house than on the highway, a significant benefit, particularly with so many quarterbacks exterior with climate issues this week. And whereas his opposing Cardinals cling to their top-five cross protection DVOA, they’ve settled right into a impartial or barely plus matchup from a fantasy perspective. The Cardinals improve interception charge by 5%, sure. And Stafford noticed his MVP probabilities evaporate by throwing 10 interceptions inside his 30-yard line. However Stafford has additionally thrown two or three touchdowns in six of his final seven video games, and the Cardinals improve passing landing charge by 18%, fourth-most in soccer.
|Worst Week 19 Matchups – Quarterbacks|
Typical chilly climate has much less of an influence on stats than you may count on, and that wind and precipitation do. It cuts cross and run performs, however by lower than 2% per recreation. It cuts passing yards by 2% per try. But it surely additionally will increase dashing landing charge by 15%, which is why famous goal-line runner Josh Allen pops as a climate gainer in our weekly projections mannequin. However 3 levels Fahrenheit is hardly typical chilly climate. There have been simply eight video games beneath 10 levels since 2009, and solely the Bears-Cowboys recreation from Week 14, 2013 bested 404 mixed passing yards between the groups. A excessive whole appears notably unlikely this Saturday because the Payments and Patriots have top-three cross defenses by DVOA and barely obtained to 600 mixed passing yards in two regular-season matchups. We mission Allen and Jones to each lose 1.7 fantasy factors in these troublesome circumstances, and people estimates might undersell their probably losses.
Worst DraftKings Values: Joe Burrow ($500 overpriced at $6,800), Tom Brady ($400 overpriced at $7,300), Josh Allen ($200 overpriced at $7,800)
Worst FanDuel Values: Patrick Mahomes ($400 overpriced at $8,700), Tom Brady ($200 overpriced at $8,400), Joe Burrow ($200 overpriced at $7,800)
Tom Brady may very well be the sneaky climate sufferer this weekend since excessive winds improve run performs by 3% per recreation and minimize passing yards and touchdowns by 2% and 5% per try. That will not matter for the Bucs as a workforce. Their opposing Eagles rank nineteenth in run protection, and each Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard might return from injured reserve this week even when Ronald Jones stays uncertain with an ankle harm. I am simply not desirous to pay Brady’s $7,300 and $8,400 DFS salaries in circumstances that would incentivize his workforce to run the ball.
|Greatest Week 19 Matchups – Operating Backs|
The Payments rank eleventh in run protection DVOA, however they’re a plus operating matchup as a result of they’re even higher towards the cross (first) and improve dashing landing charge by 26% due to it. In the meantime, the Payments are simply twenty ninth with a 74% allowed energy success charge, a actuality the Patriots made clear of their windy first matchup with their division rival after they ran 46 instances for 4.8 yards per carry and threw simply three passes. The intense chilly might not sluggish Josh Allen as severely as 40 mph winds did, however the Patriots might nonetheless run the ball 30 or extra instances and prop up each Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson as fantasy choices. I favor Harris in an absolute, however Stevenson is the higher worth proposition in each day codecs. He left Week 18 with a head harm however was cleared to return and isn’t on the harm report this weekend. And which will make it troublesome for Harris to proceed his insane run of six touchdowns the final three weeks.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Leonard Fournette ($1,600 underpriced at $5,900), Elijah Mitchell ($900 underpriced at $6,600), Sony Michel ($800 underpriced at $5,400)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Rhamondre Stevenson ($700 underpriced at $5,200), Leonard Fournette ($600 underpriced at $7,300), Sony Michel ($400 underpriced at $6,700)
Leonard Fournette is an harm threat. His activation from injured reserve and return to follow this week bodes effectively for a return to the sector. However his hamstring harm carries a threat of reinjury and will restrict his workload in any case. I favor to be optimistic. Earlier than the harm minimize his Week 15 quick, Fournette had settled right into a 61.4% carry share that had him twelfth on the place within the second half of the season. And even overlapping with receiving again Bernard for a lot of the yr, Fournette has a full-season goal share of 14.0%, eight-highest on the place. With Ronald Jones unlikely to play, the Bucs will need to depend on Fournette as a lot as doable along with his superior ability set to his backups Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Le’Veon Bell. I might take an opportunity on a bell-cow quantity in one of many higher conditions for a runner in Wild-card weekend.
|Worst Week 19 Matchups – Operating Backs|
The Eagles should see comparable dashing reinforcements to their opposing Buccaneers. However as large a operating workforce as they sometimes are, Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders might not match Fournette for fantasy success given their respective matchups. The Bucs have slipped from first in run protection DVOA final yr to twelfth this yr, however they continue to be a top-10 cutter of dashing yards and touchdowns by 6% and 25% per try. And groups appear simply as scared by the Bucs matchup as ever. They minimize run performs by 46% per recreation, by far essentially the most in soccer. The Eagles are unlikely to shortly abandon their most popular dashing technique, however I would not need to wager my fantasy fortunes on their success in these efforts. And Howard strikes me as a specific unhealthy wager. He has caught simply two passes in seven video games this season and nearly definitely would want to attain to make his fantasy day.
Worst DraftKings Values: Damien Harris ($1,000 overpriced at $6,400), Chase Edmonds ($300 overpriced at $5,000), Cam Akers ($100 overpriced at $4,200)
Worst FanDuel Values: Damien Harris ($1,000 overpriced at $7,500), Ezekiel Elliott ($700 overpriced at $7,700), Chase Edmonds ($700 overpriced at $6,400)
If James Conner had been unable to play this Sunday due to the rib harm he suffered final week, then Chase Edmonds would probably see a featured function and change into a standout DFS worth. However assuming Conner can play, then I might fade Edmonds at his pre-injury each day costs. From Weeks 1 to eight, Edmonds out-targeted Conner 38 to 5 and ranked seventh amongst all backs with a 15.5% goal share. He successfully matched J.D. McKissic for flex worth in PPR codecs. However since Edmonds suffered his ankle harm in Week 9, Conner has taken dramatically extra targets. He has a 13.4% goal share within the second half that simply misses the highest 10 on the place, and he has been tremendously efficient in his expanded function with a 62.4% receiving DVOA that leads the place. I would not rely on Conner and Edmonds falling again into their identical first-half time share. And Edmonds has his personal rib harm to take care of and seems to be as large a query mark for Monday as his teammate. The prudent transfer could also be to keep away from your entire Cardinals backfield in fantasy. It is not as if a Rams protection ranked fifth in run protection DVOA is an interesting matchup.
|Greatest Week 19 Matchups – Huge Receivers|
The climate issues I detailed for quarterbacks prolong to their receivers and make the wideouts with dome venues essentially the most interesting fantasy choices this weekend. Cooper Kupp is a no brainer constructing block regardless of his matchup. However I need to spotlight Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, whose fantasy worth has ebbed greater than it has flowed in current weeks. I blame the matchups. They do not match Prescott of their extremity, however Cooper and Lamb have averaged 3.8 and 1.4 extra PPR factors at house than on the highway the previous few seasons. And it is most likely not coincidence that Lamb’s seven-game scoring drought courting again to Week 11 consists of simply two video games within the dome in Dallas. I consider each receivers might rebound on Sunday. Beginning cornerback Emmanuel Moseley returned from injured reserve to play 100% of snaps in Week 18 and could have the 49ers secondary in higher form than they had been within the latter third of the season. However the workforce continues to be caught taking part in rookie Ambry Thomas; regardless of his game-sealing interception of Matthew Stafford final weekend, he nonetheless ranks final of the 100 cornerbacks with 30 or extra targets this season with 10.6 yards allowed per goal.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Cooper Kupp ($2,700 underpriced at $9,000), Cedrick Wilson ($700 underpriced at $4,400), Zay Jones ($500 underpriced at $4,200)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Zay Jones ($600 underpriced at $5,300), Breshad Perriman ($300 underpriced at $5,200), Cedrick Wilson ($200 underpriced at $6,000)
As bullish as I’m on the star Cowboys receivers, Cedrick Wilson stays my most popular selection as his cheap $4,400 and $6,000 DFS salaries. Wilson went from taking part in 10 snaps mixed in Weeks 14 and 15 to 47% and 68% snap shares the final two weeks after regular third receiver Michael Gallup tore his ACL. And Wilson has six targets in every of his final two spot begins and three whole touchdowns. With the house dome enhance, I rank Wilson 14th amongst all receivers this weekend. However his salaries are simply the Twenty fourth- and Seventeenth-most costly in DraftKings and FanDuel.
Alongside comparable strains, Zay Jones and Breshad Perriman ought to see extra targets than normal this weekend and haven’t seen their DFS costs catch up. Jones has quietly change into the Raiders’ prime exterior receiver and has a 22.0% goal share since Week 12 that ranks twenty second on the place. Jones hasn’t scored in that stretch, however he has 2.0 anticipated touchdowns and suffers the fifth-biggest landing shortfall at his place. His luck ought to enhance if he can proceed his present function. Perriman has much less prolonged proof of his potential renaissance. However he did play 62% of snaps in Week 18 and noticed a season-high six targets. And the Bucs do not have many different choices to think about. With Antonio Brown launched, Chris Godwin out for the season, and Cyril Grayson uncertain for Sunday with a hamstring harm, Perriman ought to begin on the skin reverse Mike Evans with Tyler Johnson in a to-date fantasy-unfriendly function within the slot.
|Worst Week 19 Matchups – Huge Receivers|
Assuming I satisfied you to keep away from the passing choices within the impending ice bowl in Buffalo, then DeVonta Smith is the subsequent receiver to think about for his unhealthy matchup. No. 1 receivers offset a few of their typical declines from excessive winds like their goal totals and yards per goal with a 19% improve in touchdowns per goal—groups appear to consolidate their passing efforts to their major weapons after they cannot run their full playbooks. However the Bucs rank tenth in cross protection DVOA and minimize No. 1 receiver yards and touchdowns by 18% and 31% per goal. And as greater than a landing underdog, the Eagles appear likelier to development excessive towards a run-focused recreation plan that, if efficient, would restrict Tom Brady’s offensive alternatives than to sling the ball throughout a really windy yard. With the matchup issues, Smith falls from 14th to sixteenth on the place this week and stands out as a participant to keep away from at his typical salaries in each day codecs.
Worst DraftKings Values: DeVonta Smith ($600 overpriced at $5,500), A.J. Inexperienced ($500 overpriced at $4,900), Stefon Diggs ($300 overpriced at $7,200)
Worst FanDuel Values: Hunter Renfrow ($1,100 overpriced at $7,300), Stefon Diggs ($700 overpriced at $8,000), DeVonta Smith ($100 overpriced at $6,200)
Zay Jones’ emergence on the skin for the Raiders hasn’t slowed down Hunter Renfrow’s fantasy breakout. Renfrow ranks seventh on the place in PPR factors within the second half of the season. However Jones’ growth has dropped Renfrow from a 24.7% goal share from Weeks 9 to 14 to an 18.1% share the final 4 weeks. And whereas Renfrow has offset these losses in fantasy with 4 touchdowns, his scoring run appears unlikely to proceed. For one, he has a surplus of 1.9 touchdowns over his anticipated whole of 5.1 from the second half, the sixth-biggest at his place. And for one more, Renfrow should contend along with his star tight finish teammate Darren Waller, who returned from a number of accidents and a COVID stint to play in Week 18 and appears more likely to reassert his standing as Derek Carr’s most popular finish zone goal. That does not make Renfrow a nasty fantasy possibility usually. It simply makes him overpriced at his $7,300 FanDuel wage.
|Greatest Week 19 Matchups – Tight Ends|
Talking of Waller, his return to elite fantasy standing ought to be aided by a Bengals opponent that ranks higher towards the run (thirteenth in DVOA) than the cross (Twenty fourth) and promotes tight finish yards and touchdowns by 14% and 15% per goal. However his position-leading matchup enhance of 0.6 projected PPR factors says as a lot about his probably quantity because it does the matchup. Broadly talking, tight ends cannot face a greater matchup than an Eagles workforce that has allowed 14 touchdowns to the place this season, 4 greater than the Raiders and 6 greater than another playoff groups.
Elsewhere, the Eagles improve tight finish landing charge by 76%. And whereas Rob Gronkowski is a lineup fixture regardless of his matchup, backup Bucs tight finish Cameron Brate might be a part of Gronk as a fantasy possibility on this spot and is a compelling possibility to avoid wasting wage for different positions in DFS. Brate has not seen a heavy goal quantity whilst he has misplaced some receiver teammates, however he has seen 12.0 finish zone targets and seven.4 anticipated touchdowns per 100 targets since Tom Brady grew to become his quarterback in 2020. That latter whole has him forward of fashionable touchdown-scorers like Hunter Henry (7.2) and Pat Freiermuth (6.5) on the place.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Cameron Brate ($700 underpriced at $2,800), Dallas Goedert ($400 underpriced at $4,500), Pat Freiermuth ($300 underpriced at $4,200)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Cameron Brate ($500 underpriced at $4,600), Pat Freiermuth ($400 underpriced at $6,400), Dallas Goedert ($200 underpriced at $5,900)
I might not be desirous to depend on different members of the Eagles passing recreation, however I might make an exception for Dallas Goedert. He has loved an distinctive 24.1% goal share because the Eagles traded Zach Ertz in Week 7 that ranks him second on the place behind solely Mark Andrews. And whereas the Bucs are a completely unhealthy matchup towards tight ends, their slicing of yards and touchdowns by 6% and 9% per goal are dramatically much less excessive than their results on different positions. Goedert’s $700 and $400 wage decreases in DraftKings and FanDuel from final week might overstate his probably losses for the matchup. To my thoughts, they make Goedert one of many few elite tight ends that does not undergo dramatic wage markups in each day codecs.
|Worst Week 19 Matchups – Tight Ends|
With Kansas Metropolis’s pedestrian-by-comparison cold-weather issues and Patrick Mahomes’ conventional defiance of matchup concerns in any case, the Chiefs principally keep away from my scrutiny this weekend. They appear more likely to crush a Steelers protection that has eroded from first in general DVOA in 2020 to only 14th this season. That stated, the Steelers are dramatically higher in cross protection (eighth) than run protection (twenty seventh) and have a tendency to extend their opponents’ run performs by 9% per recreation. And they’re notably sturdy in protection of tight ends, towards whom they’re a top-10 cutter of catch charge (4%), yards per goal (9%), and touchdowns per goal (38%). Travis Kelce is not simply any tight finish, and he would not lose his No. 1 rating on the place even with the unhealthy matchup. However we do mission Kelce to lose 1.4 PPR factors for the matchup, a loss that on the very least makes him a more durable begin at his outlier costs in each day codecs.
Worst DraftKings Values: George Kittle ($1,100 overpriced at $6,000), Dawson Knox ($800 overpriced at $4,800), Travis Kelce ($700 overpriced at $6,700)
Worst FanDuel Values: Travis Kelce ($700 overpriced at $7,500), Dawson Knox ($600 overpriced at $6,000), Tyler Higbee ($300 overpriced at $5,900)
I would not name the Cowboys a nasty matchup for George Kittle. Like Kelce, Kittle might not even have unhealthy matchups. And the Cowboys modestly improve tight finish yards and touchdowns by 3% and 10% per goal in any case, and provide Kittle one of many few dome venues for his place this weekend. However the 49ers have an uncommon offense that typically calls for that their best receiver play primarily as a blocker—and relaxation assured Kittle is tremendous good at that as effectively. Kittle noticed simply 12 mixed targets over regular taking part in time towards the Vikings, Titans, and Rams within the second half of the season, and people defenses are all within the prime 10 in adjusted sack charge. The Cowboys are close to that customary twelfth and are dramatically higher towards the cross (second in DVOA) than the run (sixteenth). The 49ers’ path to victory probably features a bunch of 15-play, 13-carry drives that eat up full quarters. And that won’t spotlight Kittle within the passing recreation. I can by no means suggest you outright keep away from one of many handful of Tier 1 choices on the place, however Kittle appears overpriced in DFS to me, particularly at his $6,000 wage in DraftKings.