Khalil Herbert Set to Dominate Your Week 8 Waiver Wire

The quantity for this week’s column is 3, which is the day that many of the greatest waiver wire choices at working again have been drafted final April. NFL groups exercised some main restraint in ready till the twenty fourth choose or later to draft the primary working backs the final three years. A group had taken a again within the prime 10 in every of the prior 4 years. But when the latest outbursts of late alternatives equivalent to Khalil Herbert and Elijah Mitchell are any indication, groups ought to wait even longer. And fantasy gamers ought to probably be faster to simply accept productiveness from backs that scouts advised them may peak as particular groups contributors.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo.

Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears

64%/59%

I wasn’t shocked to see Herbert dominate the Bears backfield in touches on Sunday. He had a near-even break up of each carries and snaps with Damien Williams in Week 5, however then Williams landed on the COVID record and Herbert excelled with 97 yards on 19 carries because the featured again in opposition to the Packers. However I used to be shocked to see Herbert have a lot success in opposition to the Buccaneers. Their protection was No. 1 in DVOA in opposition to the run in 2020 and No. 5 by way of six weeks this season. By now, most groups do not even attempt to run on the Bucs. Groups run 78% much less usually with the Bucs matchup than they usually do. However Herbert managed 18 carries regardless of a five-touchdown loss and ran for 100 yards. That makes him simply the second working again to achieve the century mark on the Bucs because the begin of 2020—Dalvin Prepare dinner did it in Week 14 final yr. Herbert additionally had the very best effectivity amongst backs with no less than 10 carries in opposition to the Bucs protection with 5.6 yards per carry.

In brief, Herbert is a reliable RB2 if not higher. His 4.8 yards per carry land him within the prime 10 of backs with 50 or extra carries this season, and his 77% versus 17% Sunday snap share disparity together with his teammate Williams exhibits a development towards a bell-cow position. It is mildly shocking to see Herbert miss the leaderboards of yards after contact per try and prevented sort out fee. However I feel his standout 3.1 yards earlier than contact per try earlier than Sunday’s recreation exhibits off his unbelievable imaginative and prescient and instincts. He would not have the efficiency-friendly third-down position of among the different metric leaders equivalent to Chase Edmonds (4.2), Kenny Gainwell (3.8), or Tony Pollard (3.4). He would not have the sub-4.40s pace that Raheem Mostert and Phillip Lindsay used to routinely flip the nook of their greatest seasons—Herbert ran a 4.46s 40 at his Professional Day. And whereas the Bears line is dramatically higher as run-blockers (4.45 adjusted line yards, eleventh) than in move safety (12.4% adjusted sack fee, thirty second), they don’t seem to be star-makers up entrance. No, Herbert seems to be like 2021’s model of James Robinson. Groups missed after they let him fall to the sixth spherical of the draft.

If Herbert had Robinson’s assured workload this season, then he’d earn the identical 100% FAB suggestion I gave Robinson when his expertise and position grew to become clear final season. However Herbert would not have that. David Montgomery is three weeks into an estimated four- to six-week absence due to a sprained knee. He appears prone to return to motion after the Bears’ Week 11 bye and will reassert a number one workload with the group. However very similar to Alex Collins, Herbert is so spectacular that I simply would not go away him on the waiver wire regardless of the anticipated competitors. Montgomery might take longer to return than the preliminary estimates. The Bears might commerce him. Or they may determine that Herbert is their future on the place and play him extra down the stretch. If Herbert is in your wire like he’s in additional than a 3rd of leagues, spend what it takes to amass him.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 41%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: Sure

Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers

76%/77%

I am nonetheless unsure what the holdouts are ready to see with Mitchell. He has performed 60% or extra of snaps in his 4 wholesome video games. He has taken between 17 and 19 carries in his three wholesome video games with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. He rendered fellow rookie Trey Sermon a complete afterthought with two snaps in Week 5 and none on Sunday. And he has produced together with his alternatives. Mitchell has averaged a wonderful 4.7 yards per carry and scored a pair of touchdowns this season. Perhaps it was the Week 6 bye. Perhaps it’s a sixth-round draft standing. However regardless of the case, make sure to choose Mitchell up if he stays out there in your league. When you play Yahoo!, he’ll be listed as “Eli Mitchell.”

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 26%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

67%/62%

Carter began a bit nearer to fantasy consideration than both Herbert or Mitchell as a fourth-round draft choose. However he slow-played his strategy to relevance with a begin in a three-back time share and a gentle snap share climb from 25% in Week 1 to 45%, 43%, 51%, 52%, and now 72% popping out of the Jets’ Week 6 bye. Perhaps that ultimate fee displays a brief enhance with Tevin Coleman out with a hamstring harm and Ty Johnson knocked out with a attainable concussion. However I feel it is prudent to be optimistic for Carter’s improvement and spend up in FAB to safe a again who may very well be headed for a second-half rookie breakout. Carter was scouted as probably the greatest receiving backs within the 2021 class, and his 9 targets on Sunday have been six greater than his earlier greatest this season. With that type of versatility, Carter might constantly present RB2 worth even when the Jets lose quarterback Zach Wilson for just a few weeks and even when they have an inclination to fall behind by a number of scores.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 11%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

26%/21%

In additional aggressive fantasy leagues, Gainwell could also be my first suggestion that’s truly out there to you. And so whereas I could also be solely lukewarm on this Day 3 rookie again, I can condone a heavier FAB spend than my beneficial 10% in case your wire is missing in different choices. Gainwell has two main factors in his fantasy favor. First, his 13.4% goal share is Twelfth-highest on the place and would usually make the undersized (5-foot-9 and 200 kilos) Gainwell a J.D. McKissic form of PPR possibility. Gainwell has virtually an identical carry (26 versus 29) and goal totals (31 versus 34) to his divisional counterpart. Second, Gainwell might get pleasure from a short-term run because the featured Eagles again. Typical starter Miles Sanders suffered an ankle harm on Sunday that required a cart to get him to the locker room. Early reports counsel he’ll miss two or three weeks. Nonetheless, I would not exhaust my remaining FAB for Gainwell. After Sanders left the sector, Gainwell performed extra however didn’t dominate his teammate Boston Scott with a 51% versus 33% snap share. In the meantime, the Eagles have averaged simply 14.0 non-quarterback carries per recreation this season. That is the lowest in soccer and 4.0 carries fewer than the Giants in third-to-last place. Whereas Jalen Hurts is the quarterback, this offense will run by way of him, pun meant. And so whereas Gainwell might have a brief upside as a lesser model of D’Andre Swift, he appears unlikely to rival Khalil Herbert in non permanent contact quantity or weekly consistency.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 10%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Alex Collins, RB, Seattle Seahawks

51%/61%

Collins had a troublesome time with the Saints protection on Monday evening, however he isn’t the one one. The Saints entered the week with the No. 2 DVOA run protection, because the No. 1 cutter of speeding yards at 35% per carry, and as a top-10 cutter of run performs at 12% per recreation. For me, the extra vital numbers have been Collins’ 16 carries versus the six from former first-round choose Rashaad Penny in his return from injured reserve. Penny might play greater than DeeJay Dallas did the earlier two weeks, however Collins continues to appear like the group’s lead again and an RB2 in fantasy in his higher matchups, no less than till Chris Carson can return from his neck harm—which might be Week 10 on the earliest with Carson on injured reserve. In the meantime, Collins has higher matchups on the schedule the following two weeks. The Jaguars and Packers rank twenty second and thirtieth in run protection DVOA.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 7%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

67%/74%

Jeudy is poised to play in Week 8 for the primary time since he injured his ankle in Week 1. And I’m prepared for it. For one, Jeudy is a tremendously proficient mid-first-round draft choose in his second season, a degree when a lot of his comparable predecessors grew to become NFL stars. Additionally, I am uninterested in parroting the stat that Jeudy noticed a goal on 23% of his snaps in Week 1, a fee that might have bested Diontae Johnson’s 21% fee in 2020 that led extensive receivers with 50 or extra targets. I want some new materials.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 6%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Zack Moss, RB, Buffalo Payments

74%/78%

Moss appears to have suffered the identical waiver destiny as Elijah Mitchell and his soon-to-be-discussed teammate Emmanuel Sanders. With the Payments on bye in Week 7, Moss slipped under the 80% roster threshold that I take advantage of on this column as a proxy for potential availability in fantasy. If Moss is accessible in your league, you most likely already know whether or not you must choose him up. For all of the heartache I’ve suffered untangling the Payments backfield splits, they’ve settled the place most individuals anticipated firstly of the season. Moss has performed 55% or extra offensive snaps and seen 12 or extra touches in 4 straight video games. Devin Singletary has been at 45% or decrease in his final 4 video games and brought 10 or fewer touches in his final two. Singletary has an apparently sizable edge with 5.2 versus 3.9 yards per carry, however Moss’ workloads are skewed towards energy conditions on third-and-shorts and close to the top zone. Total, Moss has an 18.5% avoided-tackle fee that’s the greatest amongst backs with 25 or extra carries. He is more practical than his primary statistics would on their very own counsel, and with a fantasy-friendly purple zone position, Moss is a flex possibility in even shallow codecs.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 4%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Soccer Workforce

47%/54%

Seals-Jones has been one of many uncommon handcuff-worthy tight ends in his time as a brief starter. After enjoying between 10% and 18% of snaps the primary three weeks, Seals-Jones has shot as much as 93% or larger the final month with Logan Thomas sidelined for a hamstring harm. Since Week 4, Seals-Jones is eleventh at his place with a 16.9% goal share and tied for fourth with 1.9 anticipated touchdowns primarily based on the air yards or his targets and their proximity to the top zone. He needs to be a top-10 possibility once more in Week 8. Thomas is now eligible to return from injured reserve, however his preliminary restoration timetable was 4 weeks. With a bye in Week 9, Washington will virtually definitely take the prudent path and maintain Thomas out till Week 10.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 4%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

C.J. Uzomah, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

9%/19%

With Seals-Jones all the way down to possibly his final week as a top-10 possibility on the place, Uzomah might strike you as a wierd option to record behind him with a modest 3% FAB suggestion. With two extra touchdowns on Sunday, the Bengals tight finish has tied Dawson Knox for the positional lead with 5 and will take that title for himself with Knox sidelined for a number of weeks with a damaged hand. However Uzomah leads his place in one thing else—he has a 4.2-touchdown surplus over an anticipated whole of simply 0.8 touchdowns. That surplus almost doubles the two.3-touchdown one which Knox and Hunter Henry share in second place. Joe Burrow has flipped the script on his rookie deep passing considerations, however the truth that Uzomah has scored his touchdowns from 2, 22, 31, 32, and 55 yards from the top zone screams scoring regression. And if Uzomah is not main his place in touchdowns, he might fall in need of even TE2 worth in fantasy. Even on constant 70% snap shares, Uzomah has a 9.2% goal share that’s simply Thirty fourth-best at his place this season.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 3%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns

71%/63%

Landry made his return in Week 7 from a month-long absence for an MCL sprain and had essentially the most Landry line attainable: 5 catches for 37 yards on eight targets. He’s the shallow goal on possibly essentially the most conservative offense in soccer and one which may very well be much more conservative if regular quarterback starter Baker Mayfield misses extra time. However Landry retains modest fantasy worth in his position, no less than in PPR codecs. He has averaged 6.9 targets and 13.6 PPR factors per recreation because the begin of final season (excluding Week 2 this yr when he suffered his harm), good for Thirty third-best among the many extensive receivers with 4 or extra video games performed.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 3%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals

31%/64%

In between Maxx Williams’ harm and Zach Ertz’s arrival to switch him, Kirk performed a season excessive 85% of the Cardinals’ snaps in Week 6. I used to be curious to see if he might match that fee with Ertz within the lineup in Week 7, and he could not. Kirk reverted to a 72% share that, whereas nonetheless respectable, remained in his typical 50% to 75% vary from the primary 5 weeks. Kirk has a 17.4% goal share this season that’s simply 53rd amongst extensive receivers. He most likely wanted that expanded position to constantly attain flex worth. That mentioned, he has an MVP candidate in Kyler Murray at quarterback and so possibly might maintain a landing surplus that has turned 2.7 anticipated scores into 4 precise ones. Particularly when a number of groups are on bye, Kirk is a good wager to attain and is a flex consideration due to it.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 3%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Payments

71%/75%

Sanders is a near-perfect match for Kirk with a 17.5% goal share and 4 precise touchdowns. And his latter whole is healthier supported by 3.6 anticipated scores and appears prone to proceed no less than quickly with teammate and purple zone menace Dawson Knox sidelined together with his hand harm. However Sanders was on bye final week whereas Kirk scored for the second straight recreation. I’d moderately roster Sanders, however he’ll probably be inexpensive on the wire since he was out of sight and is due to this fact out of thoughts.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams

7%/9%

Jefferson has an distinctive quarterback in Matthew Stafford, three touchdowns in seven video games, and the leaping means to function an finish zone goal.

On the very least, Jefferson seems to be like a breakout candidate for his third yr in 2022, when the cap-strapped Rams may determine to launch receiver Robert Woods to avoid wasting near $6 million in cap area. However I am questioning if that breakout may occur within the second half this season. Jefferson’s 13.7% goal share and 1.2-touchdown surplus usually are not proof that’s the case. The previous fee is exterior the highest 70 at his place. However Jefferson performed 94% of snaps in Week 7. And whereas he almost matched that fee with a 92% share in Week 2, he has landed within the 55%-to-80% vary within the different 5 weeks. If I had the bench area, I’d roster Jefferson for per week or two to see if he sustains his enhance in enjoying time.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants

78%/55%

After lacking two weeks with a hamstring harm however enjoying in Week 6, Shepard suffered an obvious setback and sat out once more in Week 7. I am beginning to think about that the Giants may very well be cursed on the talent positions. Nonetheless, Shepard deserves a bench spot for the fantasy groups that may afford to quickly waste one in the midst of the bye weeks. The Giants have their off week in Week 10, and so Shepard might not present a lot worth earlier than the second half of the season. However his 23.7% goal share is twenty first amongst receivers this yr. Even when the Giants returned to full energy, Shepard can be a reliable flex possibility if one might belief him to seek out the sector.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants

45%/46%

Toney is a higher-ceiling however lower-floor model of Shepard. Which may sound implausible with Shepard’s productiveness in his 4 wholesome video games, however Toney noticed a goal on 37% of his snaps in Weeks 5 and 6, almost double the 21% fee that earned Diontae Johnson the highest spot amongst receivers with 50 or extra targets in 2020. Toney is coping with an ankle harm and, like Shepard, might not assist fantasy groups till Week 11 and later. However he and Jerry Jeudy are the one waiver choices at receiver this week that I might envision as WR2s within the fantasy playoffs.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 2%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

3%/5%

The Steelers had their bye in Week 7 and so have only one recreation of proof of how they’re going to try to switch JuJu Smith-Schuster, out for the season with a shoulder harm. But when the one recreation foreshadows issues, the rookie tight finish Freiermuth might find yourself the largest fantasy beneficiary. He set season highs with seven targets and a 60% snap share in Week 6. And as a rookie, he might get pleasure from the same workload leap out of the bye as first-year Jets working again Michael Carter. Steelers offensive coordinator Matt Canada has raved about Freiermuth and clearly most popular him to the incumbent Eric Ebron even earlier than the bye. Freiermuth has out-targeted the veteran tight finish 20 to 13 up to now this season.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers

13%/21%

Jimmy Garoppolo entered Week 7 with a 7.4% passing DVOA that rivaled his 10.8% and 9.3% charges from the final two seasons, the primary of which was adequate to get the 49ers to the Tremendous Bowl. He deserves higher than to be buried by media for a poor efficiency within the driving rain and wind on Sunday evening. However head coach Kyle Shanahan stopped in need of providing his present starter a whole-hearted endorsement within the post-game press convention. And regardless of his demonstrated deficiencies as a passer at this level in his profession, the rookie Lance gives an excessive amount of fantasy potential to remain as cussed as Shanahan might select to be. Lance had a 41.4% carry share in Weeks 4 and 5. That will have lapped Lamar Jackson’s 30.2% fee that led the place final yr and would land Lance first this season forward of Jalen Hurts (40.6%), forward of Jackson (35.8%), and nicely forward of Josh Allen (24.3%) in third place. That method has real-world flaws, however it might be extremely precious in typical fantasy codecs that weight speeding manufacturing dramatically greater than passing manufacturing.

Really useful FAB bid (% of most): 1%
Must you use your No. 1 waiver precedence on him: No

Gamers on Extra Than 80% of Rosters to Add

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Atlanta Falcons (95%/92%)
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (93%/92%)
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (92%/94%)
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (92%/93%)
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (91%/93%)
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (91%/89%)
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins (90%/91%)
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (89%/89%)
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots (85%/95%)
Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (85%/90%)
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (83%/80%)
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (82%/85%)
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (80%/90%)
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (80%/78%)
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals (63%/81%)

Gamers on Extra Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (95%/95%)
Mike Davis, RB, Atlanta Falcons (87%/93%)
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers (71%/61%)
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (54%/66%)
Damien Williams, RB, Chicago Bears (53%/50%)
Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers (47%/60%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (38%/21%)
Sony Michel, RB, Los Angeles Rams (36%/43%)
DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (35%/20%)
Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31%/28%)
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (29%/37%)
Mark Ingram, RB, Houston Texans (25%/36%)
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington Soccer Workforce (25%/14%)
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (22%/26%)

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