James Conner or Ezekiel Elliott? RB fantasy soccer ADP comparability
All over fantasy soccer drafts, there are powerful choices to be made in the case of gamers with comparable common draft positions (ADP). On this sequence of articles, two PFN analysts will every make the case for which of two choices you need to draft at totally different factors within the draft. On this article, PFN Senior Fantasy Analyst Tommy Garrett will make the case for James Conner at his present ADP, whereas PFN Director of Fantasy Soccer will make the case for Ezekiel Elliott at his present ADP.
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In terms of present ADP, James Conner and Ezekiel Elliott are going just about back-to-back in lots of fantasy drafts. Elliott’s ADP sits at 32 in non-PPR because the RB16, whereas Conner’s ADP is at present at 33.7 because the RB17. The story is similar in PPR, with Elliott at 30.2 because the RB15 and Conner at 31.5 because the RB16.
Subsequently, when confronted with the selection of those two veteran RBs, which one ought to fantasy managers select?
As long as he stays wholesome, Conner is a respectable three-down again for the Arizona Cardinals. The staff felt greater than snug counting on Conner. In video games with out Chase Edmonds, Conner averaged 16.6 carries, 5.6 targets, 96.6 whole yards, 1.4 TDs, and 26.02 fantasy factors per sport in PPR leagues. Throughout that stretch, Conner was the RB1, RB18, RB8, RB11, RB2, and RB3, respectively.
These are absurd numbers. A part of this is because of his 7.5% TD price, scoring 18 occasions on 239 touches. Conner is totally a regression candidate for the way usually he finds the tip zone however not in his quantity, which I can’t deny. Nevertheless, this can be a staff that will get within the purple zone as a lot as anybody else.
Final yr, Conner was eighth in red-zone speeding makes an attempt general (41), and that’s with Edmonds seeing 27 red-zone touches of his personal. That is the place Conner wins, changing 14 of his scores from contained in the 20-yard line and 9 on his 17 carries from contained in the 5. With a stranglehold on the speeding and potential for elevated targets, Conner’s 15 TDs won’t appear that unrealistic regardless of ending 2021 with +9 xTDs.
Conner continues to be the lead again in a strong offense and carries 1,200-yard and double-digit landing upside. Well being is the one query, however that may be mentioned for each RB, with Derrick Henry proving this final yr. If Conner can see 40+ targets as properly (39 in 2021), he’s poised to be a top-12 RB for fantasy in 2022.
The narrative surrounding Elliott popping out of 2021 was that of a fading drive whose greatest years are behind him. Nevertheless, Elliott completed the season with 205.06 fantasy factors in non-PPR and 252.06 fantasy factors in PPR. He completed sixth when it comes to whole factors and seventh in PPR.
By his personal excessive requirements, it was barely disappointing, simply the fourth-highest factors return of his six-year profession. Nevertheless, a below-average efficiency for Elliott was nonetheless higher than many backs over the course of the yr.
Well being was a giant a part of the rationale for Elliott’s end in whole factors. He performed a full season for simply the second time in his profession. What that does imply is that in PPR, it was Elliott’s lowest profession return when it comes to fantasy factors per sport and his second-lowest in non-PPR. The promising aspect is that Elliott was nonetheless a top-15 RB for non-PPR and prime 20 for PPR.
Whereas these numbers are “low” for Elliott, his numbers from 2021 are his possible ground for 2022. Subsequently, his present ADP is solely the ground for a participant that we’ve seen have a a lot increased ceiling traditionally.
In the meantime, Elliott’s ceiling is helped by his constant red-zone utilization. He dealt with 48.6% of the Cowboys’ red-zone speeding makes an attempt, 53.1% contained in the 10-yard line, and 60% contained in the 5-yard line. All of these numbers are inside the highest 12 on the place final yr.
The important thing motive why I’m selecting Elliott over Conner is safety. Elliott has by no means missed a couple of sport in a single season as a result of harm, whereas Conner has by no means missed fewer than two. Each gamers have comparable touchdown-based upside, however Elliott has a confirmed ground of a top-20 RB. In the meantime, Conner has fallen outdoors the highest 25 on the place in two of the previous 4 years.