For Colts QB Carson Wentz, stats solely inform a part of the story

When Carson Wentz joined the Indianapolis Colts this offseason, he was reunited with Frank Reich, his offensive coordinator when he was on an MVP tempo in Philadelphia. And whereas the pairing has gotten off to a rocky begin in 2021, the Colts QB has supplied causes for optimism.

Carson Wentz’s statistics have been unimpressive up to now

Indianapolis has began the season with only one win in 4 video games, and Wentz’s statistics replicate their struggles. The Colts QB hasn’t even damaged 1,000 passing yards, totaling simply 920 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception by means of the air.

Wentz could possibly be taking part in far worse, however he doesn’t appear to have helped Indianapolis a lot this season.

Utilizing superior metrics to judge Carson Wentz’s play

General, Wentz’s superior metrics verify what the normal statistics inform us. For example that time, let’s flip to the Offensive Worth Metric (OVM). OVM is a grading system created by the (Bx) Motion, designed to judge gamers based mostly on how a lot they contributed to the creation of their statistics relatively than the statistics themselves.

Wentz’s efficiency up to now on the metric has been underwhelming. By way of 4 video games, his total grade sits at 21.13. That ranks twenty fifth out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. He merely hasn’t had the affect Indianapolis hoped for after they traded for him.

Inspecting the superior metrics behind Wentz’s total OVM grade

To clarify why Wentz’s grade is underwhelming, we have to take a look at the superior metrics concerned in calculating it. To start out with, the Colts QB isn’t throwing the ball notably far downfield, averaging 6.9 yards per try and 5.4 yards per completion.

Regardless of that, he’s finishing simply 63.8% of his passes, one of many lowest completion percentages within the NFL. In keeping with the NFL’s projections, that quantity is 0.3% greater than anticipated, which is a mediocre differential.

To Wentz’s credit score, he’s throwing into tight home windows on an especially excessive 18.1% of his throws. However that isn’t sufficient to beat his deficiencies in different areas.

OVM grades hampered by accidents

Though Wentz’s total OVM grade is unimpressive, there’s a important caveat that works in his favor. His total grade is tanked by a person grade of 8.81 in Week 3. In that sport, Wentz was merely one week faraway from carrying out the uncommon feat of twisting each his ankles in a single sport.

Not solely is that extraordinarily unfortunate, nevertheless it additionally clearly affected his efficiency the next week.

Other than Week 3, Wentz’s grades have truly elevated every week, beginning at 19.74 in Week 1 then rising to 24.77 and 32.32 in Weeks 2 and 4. That development signifies that Wentz, apart from one injury-plagued efficiency, is steadily rising extra comfy within the Colts’ offense.

Evaluating Wentz’s efficiency this season to how he performed in 2020

To contextualize Wentz’s 2021 OVM development, let’s evaluate it to how he performed throughout his final season in Philadelphia.

You’ll be able to see his grades from every week of that season within the chart beneath, marked by the black dots. For comparability, the regular-season common grade for quarterbacks in 2020 is represented by the yellow line.

Even taking that Week 3 grade under consideration, Wentz remains to be performing higher total with Indianapolis than throughout his final season with the Eagles. He has already earned two grades above 20 factors, which he solely did 5 instances in 13 video games a season in the past. He has additionally earned a grade above 30, which he solely did twice in 2020.

Moreover, Wentz’s worst grade from 2020 was a 7.84-point efficiency in Week 4. That’s even decrease than his Week 3 grade from this season.

These numbers point out that, regardless of his accidents and statistical deficiencies, Wentz has proven official indicators of enchancment up to now in 2021.

The Colts want their QB to play at the next stage to show their season round

Regardless of defeating the Miami Dolphins final week, the Colts’ playoff hopes are nonetheless on life help. A loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night time would drop the workforce to 1-4. That wouldn’t fairly finish their season, however it might definitely get shut.

And whereas the Colts have extra issues than simply their QB, that solely makes Wentz’s efficiency much more essential. Happily, he appears to be trending upward. If he continues to progress, possibly Indianapolis can drag themselves into the playoffs.


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