Chiefs Rising Up DVOA Ranks

NFL Week 14 – The Tampa Bay Buccaneers widened their DVOA lead over the remainder of the league with this week’s win over the Buffalo Payments. Tampa Bay additionally has the best remaining schedule within the league, which is why we now favor the Buccaneers to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed (48% of simulations).

The New England Patriots stay No. 2 in general DVOA for the season and likewise stay our high staff in weighted DVOA, which lowers the energy of older video games to get a greater concept of how properly groups are taking part in now. The Dallas Cowboys climb as much as No. 3 in DVOA after a win over Washington that was larger than the ultimate rating of 27-20 signifies — though it also needs to be famous that the Cowboys managed to get well all 5 fumbles on this recreation, two of their very own and three by Washington.

Dallas hops over Buffalo, which drops just a little bit with the loss to Tampa Bay. The Payments lose their title as “most inconsistent staff in DVOA historical past” this week as a result of they went out and performed a recreation with a DVOA very near their common DVOA for the complete season. Swiftly, they had been randomly constant. What’s notably exceptional is that the Carolina Panthers now have a variance nearly as excessive as Buffalo’s after this week’s loss to Atlanta. So this Sunday, we’ll see a matchup of two of the 5 least constant groups in DVOA historical past. Something might occur on this one!

Again to the highest 10, the Rams transfer as much as No. 5 with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals, who drop a spot to No. 6. Then at No. 7, we have got the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs shifting up two spots, and that is the staff I need to give attention to this week. The Chiefs additionally moved as much as No. 4 in weighted DVOA this week and they’re now the No. 3 Tremendous Bowl contender in our playoff odds simulation behind New England and Tampa Bay. The markets now have Kansas Metropolis as the highest staff within the AFC, as do quite a lot of different metrics across the Web. We nonetheless have the Patriots greater as a result of New England has been so, so good over the past 10 video games, however Kansas Metropolis is on the rise and catching as much as them.

This is a take a look at Kansas Metropolis’s week-to-week graph. You may see the Chiefs actually have solely two damaging video games, however their losses to Buffalo and Tennessee had been fairly dangerous. Then there are a number of good-but-not-great video games, and eventually within the final month a few dominant wins.

Kansas City week-to-week graph

Kansas Metropolis will get 82.7% single-game DVOA for this week’s victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. This week’s recreation appeared similar to Kansas Metropolis’s win over Las Vegas on the street again in Week 10, however this one ended up with a a lot greater DVOA ranking. The Chiefs had a much bigger benefit in success fee than again in Week 10, and a a lot larger benefit in yards per play and turnovers.

Evaluating KC-LV Video games, 2021
Week Rating KC
DVOA
KC
Yd/Play
LV
Yd/Play
KC
Suc%
LV
Suc%
KC TO
Margin
Week 10 41-14 22.8% 6.8 5.9 53.3% 44.4% +1
Week 14 48-9 82.7% 6.5 4.8 48.2% 37.7% +5

What’s exceptional is the best way that Kansas Metropolis is now profitable with protection as an alternative of offense. You most likely know this already, as a result of the dialogue has been all around the soccer world, however the numbers are fairly stark.

For Weeks 1-5, the Chiefs had 30.7% defensive DVOA. That ranked thirty first within the NFL. Solely Jacksonville was worse within the first 5 weeks. Since Week 6, Kansas Metropolis has -17.9% defensive DVOA. That ranks third within the NFL. Within the final 9 weeks, solely New England and Dallas have been higher on the defensive facet of the ball.

Then again, the offense has not performed as much as its common requirements. Let’s take a look at the identical interval we checked out for protection. In Weeks 1-5, Kansas Metropolis ranked second with 33.2% offensive DVOA. Solely Tampa Bay was higher within the first 5 weeks. Since Week 6, Kansas Metropolis has 0.8% offensive DVOA, which ranks simply thirteenth within the league for that point interval. This isn’t simply a problem of turnovers. Kansas Metropolis’s common yards per play have gone from 6.48 within the first 5 weeks to five.66 since. Kansas Metropolis’s success fee on offense has gone from 55% within the first 5 weeks to 47% since.

The Kansas Metropolis offense has turned issues round prior to now 5 weeks, as you’ll be able to most likely inform from two video games scoring greater than 40 factors. 21.5% offensive DVOA since Week 10 ranks them fourth within the league. Nevertheless, that interval is simply 4 video games. Solely three of them had been notably good on offense and two of these video games had been towards the identical staff, Las Vegas. (The opposite recreation with a superb offensive DVOA is the 19-9 win over the Cowboys; there are fairly robust opponent changes for taking part in the Cowboys protection at this level.) It is cheap to surprise if there’s one thing concerning the Las Vegas protection that makes the Raiders a very matchup for Kansas Metropolis. (As I prompt throughout this week’s recreation, the Raiders do not play as a lot of the two-high security protection that has bothered Patrick Mahomes this season. In addition they have issues at security and depth points at cornerback.)

Oh, and I also needs to add that Kansas Metropolis ranks second in particular groups DVOA this season, together with first in weighted particular groups DVOA. They’ve barely damaging worth on returns however the Chiefs have been robust on subject targets, kickoffs, and punts.

The Sinking AFC North

The Patriots, Chiefs, and Indianapolis Colts are all considerably higher in weighted DVOA than in complete DVOA. There are different groups going within the different route, primarily groups within the AFC North. All 4 groups within the AFC North are greater in complete DVOA than in weighted DVOA, and three of the 5 greatest gaps belong to AFC North groups:

Greatest Detrimental Hole, Weighted DVOA vs Complete DVOA
Group DVOA Rk WEI
DVOA
Rk Dif
CLE 4.9% 14 -0.2% 16 -5.0%
ARI 19.6% 6 15.1% 9 -4.5%
BAL 3.5% 16 -0.3% 17 -3.8%
NO 6.9% 13 3.3% 15 -3.7%
PIT -11.5% 23 -14.5% 24 -3.1%
SEA 2.5% 17 -0.6% 18 -3.1%

Cleveland is the most important faller in current weeks and it’s principally about offense. The protection is definitely just a little higher in weighted DVOA than in complete DVOA, however Cleveland’s offense drops from 6.2% to 1.7%. Baltimore’s drop can also be about offense, which is 0.9% in complete DVOA however -3.4% in weighted DVOA.  Pittsburgh’s decline in current weeks is evenly cut up between offense and protection. (Cincinnati is the one AFC North staff the place the offense is not taking part in worse over the previous few weeks.) The NFC groups on this record can just about all be defined by quarterback accidents.

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Right here is the Soccer Outsiders Prime 16 by way of 14 weeks of 2021, measured by our proprietary Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA) system that breaks down each single play and compares a staff’s efficiency to the league common primarily based on scenario with the intention to decide worth over common. (Defined additional right here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and efficiency indoors and think about all fumbles, saved or misplaced, as equal worth. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for kind of stadium (heat, chilly, dome, Denver) and week of season. As all the time, optimistic numbers characterize extra factors so DEFENSE is best when it’s NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA offers current video games extra energy than older video games to get a greater concept of how properly groups are taking part in now.

You will discover that DAVE (DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early) is now gone from our tables; with 13 video games performed for each staff, the usage of preseason priors has totally washed out of our system.

To avoid wasting individuals a while, please use the next format for all complaints:

<staff> is clearly ranked <too excessive/too low> as a result of <purpose unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective rating system> is means higher than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating remark, ideally with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

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