Carr, Ryan, and Wentz Are Week 10 Streaming Choices
NFL Week 10 – Elite quarterbacks have at all times hung their fantasy hats on consistency and well being, even when point-scoring and lineup calls for skew the sport towards operating backs and large receivers. However 2021 has been a foul yr for the presumed finest quarterbacks. Deshaun Watson has had his authorized troubles. Russell Wilson broke a finger. Kyler Murray sprained his ankle. Patrick Mahomes might have misplaced his superpowers. Aaron Rodgers might have lied about his vaccination standing. And now Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow fell victims to the widespread Week 9 upsets.
I would not anticipate an excessive amount of predictiveness in these latter outcomes, nevertheless it has change into extra essential than ever to think about the matchups at quarterback. And with a handful of regular mid-tier QB2 choices enjoying in domes towards weaker cross defenses, Week 10 may very well be a fantastic alternative to stream on the place.
The next tables characteristic the gamers with the perfect and worst matchups of the week. Every listed participant reveals a true-talent (TT) rating that represents how I might rank him with a superbly impartial recreation context. Then, that rating is adjusted by including the context of the venue (Ven)—residence and street and dome and out of doors—the forecasted climate (Wea), and opponent tendencies (Opp). The road beneath these rankings reveals how a lot these contextual elements transfer projected PPR fantasy factors. That whole (Tot) quantity provides you a complete estimate of what number of fantasy factors the participant will rating this week roughly than his typical whole.
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|Greatest Week 10 Matchups – Quarterbacks|
The Cowboys have been one of many many upset victims in Week 9. However even when quarterback Dak Prescott hadn’t salvaged his fantasy day with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns, I would not be involved for his prospects this Sunday. The Broncos managed greater than 41 minutes of clock with a deliberate dedication to a profitable run recreation, and the Falcons appear unlikely to have the ability to comply with swimsuit with a bottom-six run-blocking line with 3.89 adjusted line yards. If any excessive, the Cowboys-Falcons matchup must be a passing explosion, and I like each Prescott and his counterpart Matt Ryan as values relative to their true expertise rankings of eighth and Thirteenth on the place. The Falcons enhance passing landing charge by 30% and minimize interception charge by 55%, top-five and bottom-five in soccer, respectively. And though they improve interception charge by 69% on the shoulders of breakout cornerback and Defensive Participant of the 12 months candidate Trevon Diggs, the Cowboys counterbalance that for fantasy with modest rising of passing yards and touchdowns by 8% and 4% and a dome venue that ought to encourage Ryan to air it out.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Matt Ryan ($500 underpriced at $6,000), Derek Carr ($500 underpriced at $6,000), Dak Prescott ($400 underpriced at $6,900)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Matt Ryan ($400 underpriced at $7,300), Dak Prescott ($300 underpriced at $8,100), Justin Herbert ($300 underpriced at $8,000)
The Falcons scream regression generally with a 4-4 report and (possible momentary) maintain of the seventh seed within the NFC regardless of the second-worst DVOA within the sport. I simply do not suppose that logic extends to Ryan’s possible fantasy worth. He has rebounded from a dismal 32-6 loss in Philadelphia in Week 1 to common 285 yards and a couple of.1 touchdowns by means of the air the final seven weeks. In a passing-friendly fantasy matchup, he stands out as a worth at simply $6,000 and $7,300 within the DFS platforms even with out his regular high wideout Calvin Ridley.
Derek Carr is a harder sale. He managed simply 6.4 yards per try in his first recreation with out Henry Ruggs on Sunday and threw fewer than two touchdowns for simply the second time all season. And I would not anticipate DeSean Jackson to maneuver the needle on this offense even together with his deep pace—he noticed simply 15 targets in seven video games with the Rams this season and can flip 35 years outdated on December 1. However Carr’s matchup is attractive sufficient for me to think about within the each day platforms. For one, he’ll play this recreation at residence within the dome in Las Vegas. He was exterior in New York final week, and Carr has averaged 2.1 extra fantasy factors per recreation at residence than on the street in latest seasons. And second, Carr’s Chiefs opponents rank twenty seventh in cross protection DVOA and improve passing yards and touchdowns by 12% and 13% per try, each top-eight in soccer. He appears poised to maneuver the ball comfortably with only a brief and intermediate passing assault with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. And if the Chiefs can rediscover their offensive explosiveness, they might even coax Carr to exceed his 2021 common of 39 cross makes an attempt per recreation, poor run protection or not.
|Worst Week 10 Matchups – Quarterbacks|
Mike White was the story of the mid-season for all of 5 quarters wherein he went off for 500 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. However sadly, he injured his hand and missed the majority of his Week 9 recreation towards a Colts workforce that encourages passing with the Twenty sixth-ranked cross protection and second-ranked run protection. And now that he is wholesome and named the Week 10 starter, he’ll need to take care of a Payments protection that appears just like the worst attainable matchup for a quarterback in fantasy. His divisional opponent has an outlier of a No. 1 cross protection at -26.2% DVOA, they usually minimize passing yards and touchdowns by 23% and 40% and improve interception charge by 83%, all top-two in soccer. With a profitable encore on this matchup, White may persuade me he deserves a shot to be the Jets’ rest-of-season starter over the No. 2 decide Zach Wilson. However he’ll be on my fantasy benches as a result of the matchup drops him from a startable rating of twenty first in true expertise for two-quarterback leagues to twenty seventh on the place this week. Spot Panthers starter P.J. Walker is the one starter I’ve ranked decrease for the week.
Worst DraftKings Values: Matthew Stafford ($900 overpriced at $7,000), Aaron Rodgers ($900 overpriced at $7,100), Baker Mayfield ($300 overpriced at $5,400)
Worst FanDuel Values: Matthew Stafford ($500 overpriced at $8,000), Baker Mayfield ($200 overpriced at $6,800), Mike White ($100 overpriced at $6,700)
Matthew Stafford might deserve his consideration for the real-life MVP award. He ranks second with 849 passing DYAR and fifth with a 26.0% passing DVOA and has the Rams in second place within the NFC even after a head-scratching multi-score loss to a Titans workforce that simply misplaced their star in Derrick Henry. However Stafford doesn’t match his real-world worth in fantasy as a result of he does not run. He ranks simply seventh on the place with 22.5 common fantasy factors per recreation and trails extra risky passers equivalent to Lamar Jackson (25.4), Josh Allen (25.0), and Jalen Hurts (22.5) as a result of he solely has 37 yards and hasn’t scored on the bottom. The 49ers haven’t rebounded from an injury-altered 2020 season and are a greater run (sixth) than cross protection (twenty fifth). Stafford may torch them for 3 or 4 touchdowns the best way he has different respectable defenses such because the Bears and Bucs in Weeks 1 and three. However I do not need to pay market costs within the high seven on the place if Stafford is on the street within the parts and falls wanting a plus passing matchup for fantasy. Particularly when another top-tier quarterbacks equivalent to Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert have higher matchups and DFS values.
|Greatest Week 10 Matchups – Operating Backs|
Devin Singletary’s thirty eighth true-talent and thirty fifth context-adjusted rankings mirror an early-week expectation that he’ll serve his regular 1B position within the Payments backfield. However 1A and energy again Zack Moss suffered a concussion in Week 9 and didn’t follow on Wednesday. And whereas I would not anticipate Singletary to repeat his 72% snap share and eight targets from final week if the Payments knew Moss was out and will activate Matt Breida in his stead, I might nonetheless anticipate Singletary to vault into the RB2/flex dialogue with a workhorse if not bell-cow position. The matchup is definitely conducive. The Jets have the Thirty first-ranked run protection and, unsurprisingly then, improve run performs by 20% per recreation. Additionally they enhance dashing yards and touchdowns by 15% and 56% per carry, each top-four in soccer.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Michael Carter ($1,200 underpriced at $5,600), James Conner ($900 underpriced at $6,300), Darrel Williams ($700 underpriced at $5,400)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Michael Carter ($1,100 underpriced at $6,100), Darrel Williams ($900 underpriced at $6,000), James Conner ($700 underpriced at $7,000)
Michael Carter will not have the identical plus matchup on the opposite sideline of that Jets-Payments recreation. The Payments might not have an traditionally nice run protection the best way they do a cross protection. However they nonetheless rank third towards the run in DVOA, minimize run performs by 21% per recreation, and minimize touchdowns by 37% per carry. Nonetheless, I see Carter as one of many largest operating again values this week in DFS due to his receiving tendencies. The rookie Carter has emerged from a Week 6 bye with 72%, 70%, and 58% snap shares that symbolize his three highest charges for the season. And he has seen 9, 14, and two targets that symbolize a three-game goal share of 17.1%. Solely Alvin Kamara (19.4%) and Aaron Jones (17.5%) have had greater shares and performed every of the final three weeks. Carter is probably not environment friendly towards the Payments linebackers and safeties which have the protection because the No. 1 cutter of operating again catch charge (21%). However a possible heavy dashing and receiving quantity ought to nonetheless make Carter an amazing each day worth.
I usually attempt to keep away from chasing a three-touchdown outburst like James Conner had towards the 49ers on Sunday. However Conner owes not less than among the alternative for these scores to an harm to his teammate Chase Edmonds, and Edmonds will miss this week and certain extra with a excessive ankle sprain. Edmonds’ harm has rendered Conner a flex choice with a 37-to-10 goal benefit on the season. However now that he is out and has an inexperienced Eno Benjamin to interchange him, Conner appears more likely to improve his goal share dramatically. He caught 34 or extra passes his final three seasons with the Steelers regardless of lacking time all three years, and he is first amongst backs with 10 or extra carries with an 80.0% receiving success charge this season. In the meantime, Conner is tied for first with 10 dashing touchdowns and is fourth with 5.6 anticipated dashing touchdowns based mostly on the sphere place of his carries. I rank him eighth amongst backs in PPR codecs this week. However even with value will increase, Conner is simply the Thirteenth- and Sixteenth-most costly again in DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
|Worst Week 10 Matchups – Operating Backs|
James Robinson and Antonio Gibson have been off in Week 9—the previous as an inactive and the latter on bye—and so I really feel OK about their well being statuses heading into Week 10. I simply hate their fantasy matchups. The Colts and Bucs rank second and fourth in run protection DVOA, and the Bucs are the No. 1 cutter of run performs at 44% per recreation. With their very own elite defenses to maintain the scores shut, Robinson and Gibson may each fall wanting their typical workloads and cede some snaps to receiving backs equivalent to Dare Ogunbowale and J.D. McKissic. I would not outright bench not less than Robinson in conventional codecs. As one of many few workhorse backs in soccer, his projected lack of 1.0 PPR factors cannot knock him exterior the highest 20 on the place this week. However I might keep away from each gamers in DFS.
I agree with Derrik Klassen’s perspective from Tuesday’s waiver wire fantasy present that Adrian Peterson may improve his snap and carry shares over the course of the remainder of the common season. He was a road free agent lower than every week earlier than his Week 9 begin. At 36 years outdated, he might have greater than six days to arrange for an NFL recreation. However I am not able to gamble on the rise this week when the Titans welcome the Saints to Tennessee. The Saints have the No. 1 run protection by DVOA and are top-three cutters of run performs per recreation and yards per carry at 22% and 32%, respectively. Peterson may simply duplicate his 10-carry, 21-yard inefficiency from his Titans debut this week. And if he cannot rating a landing, he’ll be an efficient non-contributor from a fantasy perspective.
Worst DraftKings Values: Jordan Howard ($500 overpriced at $4,900), Antonio Gibson ($200 overpriced at $5,500), Damien Harris ($0 overpriced at $5,900)
Worst FanDuel Values: James Robinson ($600 overpriced at $7,500), Jordan Howard ($400 overpriced at $5,900), Antonio Gibson ($0 overpriced at $6,200)
Jordan Howard has outproduced Peterson in his personal fantasy resurrection with the Eagles with 29 carries, 128 yards, and three touchdowns in a pair of video games. However I am tremendously skeptical that manufacturing will proceed. For one, Howard timed his promotion with a stretch of schedule when the Eagles confronted the Lions and Chargers, ranked twenty fifth and Thirty second in run protection DVOA. He’ll face harder sledding towards the Broncos (twenty third) and particularly the Saints (second) the subsequent two weeks, assuming Miles Sanders continues to overlook time. And second, Howard has cut up time as a part of a three-back committee and is lucky to have the manufacturing he has had. Boston Scott has even bested him with 45% and 44% versus 25% and 40% snap shares the final two weeks. Howard has merely been the luckiest with 1.2-touchdown surplus over 1.8 anticipated dashing touchdowns. His worth may crater if he fails to search out the top zone or if the Eagles merely return to their earlier-season reliance on Jalen Hurts for a de facto operating recreation.
Damien Harris has made it to every-week starter standing with 5 straight video games with 14 or extra touches and not less than one landing. However do not fully erase his two-game stretch of 10 carries for 10 yards out of your reminiscence. That droop got here towards the Saints and Bucs ranked first and fourth in run protection DVOA—as a non-threat as a receiver, Harris could also be significantly delicate to his matchups. And this week brings one other dangerous a type of within the Browns, ranked fifth in run protection. Each Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson suffered head accidents on Sunday and will miss Week 10. And whereas one’s absence may open up further fantasy alternatives for the opposite, do not blindly assume that the beneficiary will excel in fantasy. It may very well be a foul dashing day for your entire Patriots backfield.
|Greatest Week 10 Matchups – Broad Receivers|
Mike Williams was a breakout September star enjoying Michael Thomas’ X-receiver position in former Saints coach and new Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s offense. However Williams’ goal share has plummeted from 25.2% from the primary 5 weeks to 13.4% since Week 6. Given his observe report, I am afraid Williams may very well be enjoying damage. Regardless of the case, the silver lining for the Chargers and a few fantasy gamers is that Keenan Allen is again as much as a 25.9% goal share in that second cut up and again within the high 10 in my true expertise rankings. And he jumps to 3rd on the place this week at residence within the dome in Los Angeles and going through a Vikings workforce with out star pass-rusher Danielle Hunter and underwhelming cornerback expertise. They’re a top-12 increaser of touchdowns per goal for No. 1, No. 2, and slot receivers.
You do not want me to let you know to start out Michael Pittman at residence towards the Jaguars’ No. 32-ranked cross protection. However you might be stunned to listen to that his counterpart within the Jaguars-Colts recreation, Marvin Jones, is projected for the same matchup enhance of 1.2 PPR factors. A few of that’s the dome in Indianapolis, however a few of it’s the Colts protection. They rank eleventh in total defensive DVOA, however that’s skewed closely towards the No. 2 run protection. They rank simply Twenty sixth towards the cross and are a top-four booster of No. 1 receiver yards and touchdowns per goal and 26% and 88%, respectively.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Tyreek Hill ($1,100 underpriced at $7,700), Tyler Johnson ($800 underpriced at $3,300), Hunter Renfrow ($700 underpriced at $5,100)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Jamal Agnew ($800 underpriced at $5,300), Hunter Renfrow ($700 underpriced at $6,000), Keenan Allen ($500 underpriced at $7,200)
Tyler Johnson and Hunter Renfrow pop as each day values because of new alternatives. Johnson has jumped from his typical 15% to 30% snap share vary to greater than a 60% share and eight whole targets the final two video games with Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski injured. Neither Brown nor Gronkowski has returned to padded practices regardless of the additional remainder of a bye week and appear poised to overlook Week 10. In the meantime, receiver Chris Godwin has missed latest follow time with a foot harm and is a query mark for Sunday. Maybe Scotty Miller will return from his personal foot harm this week, however Johnson ought to proceed his latest further run this weekend and is underpriced at simply $3,300 in DraftKings due to it.
Renfrow noticed modest will increase to a 65% snap share and 9 targets in his first recreation with out teammate Henry Ruggs. Neither that charge nor that whole was unprecedented, so it is not a provided that Renfrow will keep them with DeSean Jackson poised to affix the Raiders. Luckily for fantasy, Renfrow has a security internet in his residence dome matchup with the Chiefs, the No. 27 cross protection and a modest increaser of slot receiver yards and touchdowns by 3% and eight% per goal. I think about Renfrow as $700 underpriced at each his $5,100 DraftKings and $6,000 FanDuel salaries this week.
|Worst Week 10 Matchups – Broad Receivers|
Corey Davis ought to return from his hip harm this week, and that makes rookie Elijah Moore a troublesome participant to start out in fantasy regardless of his two-touchdown outburst in Week 9. Moore performed 60% of snaps final Thursday with Davis inactive however performed simply 48%, 41%, 57%, and 36% in his earlier 4 video games. With not less than six targets in all 5 of his wholesome video games this season, slot receiver Jamison Crowder appears safer. However the Payments are simply as sturdy defensively towards slot receivers as they’re on the skin. They minimize slot receiver yards and touchdowns by 36% and 81% per goal and drop Crowder from a back-end flex consideration at thirty sixth in true expertise to forty seventh on the place this week.
Worst DraftKings Values: A.J. Brown ($1,400 overpriced at $7,800), D.J. Moore ($1,100 overpriced at $6,300), Elijah Moore ($700 overpriced at $4,700)
Worst FanDuel Values: DJ Moore ($500 overpriced at $6,800), A.J. Brown ($500 overpriced at $7,600), Courtland Sutton ($300 overpriced at $6,600)
DJ Moore does not have the teammate competitors downside of his rookie namesake. Robby Anderson has change into an afterthought after his preseason contract extension with a 17.3% goal share that’s exterior the highest 50 on the place, and so DJ is the unquestioned high Panthers choice. However he stands out as one of the vital overpriced receivers this week since regular quarterback starter Sam Darnold will miss time with a shoulder harm. Darnold has been as inefficient as ever with a -34.6% passing DVOA that has him the worst of the non-rookie starters. However he has enabled Moore’s fantasy success with a top-eight whole of 306 cross makes an attempt. Substitute P.J. Walker must prolong some drives to achieve even that modest customary, and that may very well be troublesome towards the No. 2 Cardinals cross protection. Walker has only one profession begin, and he managed simply 258 yards and one landing in a dramatically simpler matchup towards the Lions’ last-place cross protection final season. Moore is a transparent sit at his $6,300 and $6,800 DFS costs. However I rank him simply Thirty first amongst receivers in PPR codecs as properly, and counsel you attempt to keep away from your Panthers not named Christian McCaffrey this weekend.
|Greatest Week 10 Matchups – Tight Ends|
The Chiefs and Cowboys are two of the perfect tight finish matchups. They improve yards per goal by 36% and 19% and touchdowns per goal by 80% and 36% for the place. However with top-four true expertise rankings, Darren Waller and Kyle Pitts are no-brainer fantasy begins irrespective of their matchups. Tyler Conklin is probably not in your shallower codecs, and so thoughts his plus matchup. The Chargers are most well-known (not less than in sabermetric circles) for his or her Thirty second-ranked run protection. However they improve tight finish yards and touchdowns by 43% and 34% per goal as properly. The Vikings will need to lean on their operating recreation—they at all times do. However except they will restrict Justin Herbert’s explosive passing offense, they must throw the ball, and Conklin ought to profit. He climbs from fifteenth in true expertise to 14th on the place this week and is startable even with none of the elite fantasy choices among the many Bears, Bengals, Giants, and Texans tight ends, all of whom are on bye.
Greatest DraftKings Values: Dan Arnold ($700 underpriced at $3,500), Pat Freiermuth ($600 underpriced at $3,900), Darren Waller ($500 underpriced at $6,300)
Greatest FanDuel Values: Pat Freiermuth ($700 underpriced at $5,100), Dan Arnold ($500 underpriced at $5,100), Darren Waller ($300 underpriced at $7,000)
This is not the primary week I’ve advisable Dan Arnold and Pat Freiermuth in each day codecs. However their DFS costs have elevated simply modestly in latest weeks—Arnold is up $700 in DraftKings and $800 in FanDuel from his Jaguars debut and Freiermuth is up $1,000 in DraftKings and $600 in FanDuel since JuJu Smith-Schuster’s shoulder harm. And my expectations for them in fantasy have improved dramatically. Since a part-time debut together with his new workforce, Arnold has performed not less than 57% of snaps in 4 straight video games and has a 19.6% goal share that’s ninth-highest on the place. And Freiermuth has performed 60%, 78%, and 71% of snaps as the first enjoying time beneficiary of Smith-Schuster’s harm and has three touchdowns and 1.9 anticipated touchdowns in that point. Darren Waller is an uncommon underpriced elite fantasy tight finish. But when I needed to avoid wasting wage on the place, I might fortunately roll with both Arnold or Freiermuth.
|Worst Week 10 Matchups – Tight Ends|
Present and former Eagles tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz endure two of the largest matchup downgrades on the place this week. And whereas the previous’s Broncos opponent cannot unseat a top-seven true-talent participant from TE1 consideration, Ertz has a extra difficult story. By goal share, Ertz may make a compelling case for the highest 12 at his place. His 16.3% charge with the Cardinals places him simply between Mike Gesicki (17.2%) and Dalton Schultz (16.0%) in latest weeks. And Ertz may stay a featured choice for the workforce in DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Inexperienced miss extra time with their respective hamstring and COVID-related absences. However the Cardinals might miss their regular quarterback Kyler Murray once more this weekend. And whereas Colt McCoy accomplished 85% of his passes as a pinch-hitter final Sunday, he would face a harder defensive check in a Panthers protection that ranks fourth towards the cross and cuts tight finish yards by 29% per goal. Except Murray makes a late-week restoration, I might choose to go away Ertz on my fantasy benches this week.
Worst DraftKings Values: Zach Ertz ($1,100 overpriced at $4,600), Dalton Schultz ($400 overpriced at $5,000), Logan Thomas ($100 overpriced at $4,000)
Worst FanDuel Values: Zach Ertz ($200 overpriced at $5,200), Logan Thomas ($100 overpriced at $5,500), Dalton Schultz ($100 overpriced at $6,000)
Like Goedert, Dalton Schultz and Logan Thomas are every-week tight finish starters in conventional codecs—not less than when each are wholesome. However Schultz strikes me as a bit overpriced this week with teammate Michael Gallup more likely to return from an injured reserve stint with a calf harm. Like his large receiver teammates Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, Gallup is a downfield menace and should in a roundabout way take Schultz’s shallow targets from him. However extra proficient receivers may result in rather less quantity for everybody.
We possible will not know until Friday whether or not Thomas will return from injured reserve this week. An authentic timeline for his hamstring harm pointed to a Week 9 return when Washington was on their bye, so I am decently optimistic. I am simply much less optimistic for Thomas at his $4,000 and $5,500 DFS value tags given the workforce’s matchup with a Bucs protection that cuts tight finish yards by 15% per goal. Given the opponent, I feel it makes extra sense to substantiate Thomas could make it by means of a full recreation in his presumed return this weekend and, if that’s the case, plan to return him to your fantasy lineups beginning in Week 11.