Buffalo Payments Again to No. 1 in DVOA

NFL Week 10 – The Buffalo Payments are again on prime of the Soccer Outsiders DVOA scores after an enormous win over the lowly New York Jets this week. The Payments are going to be a wonderful check of our principle that championship groups are outlined largely by their dominant wins over unhealthy groups. The Payments are the least constant group of the yr in keeping with week-to-week variance of DVOA. They’ve 4 wins with DVOA over 60% however additionally they have three losses with detrimental DVOA. These losses weren’t to significantly good groups, both, at the very least in keeping with DVOA. Sure, the Titans are 8-2, however all three of the groups that beat Buffalo are within the backside half of our DVOA scores.

The group Buffalo replaces on the highest of the DVOA scores is the Arizona Cardinals. Clearly, the Cardinals fell out of the highest spot largely as a result of they’d to make use of their backup and third-string quarterbacks towards Carolina this week and ended up with an enormous 34-10 loss. Nonetheless, it’s price noting that this week was Arizona’s worst efficiency of the yr on each offense and protection. Even when Arizona had the identical offensive DVOA as per week in the past, the Cardinals nonetheless would have fallen out of the highest spot general due to the decline of their protection this week. They’d simply be No. 2 as a substitute of No. 4.

As we regularly must level out, the DVOA scores usually are not adjusted for backup quarterbacks. DVOA measures what occurred on the sphere based mostly on the gamers who had been on the sphere in these video games, and we do not estimate what groups would have achieved if they’d completely different personnel on the sphere. Nonetheless, we do estimate the impact of backup quarterbacks on predictive scores going ahead within the DAVE scores that we use for our playoff odds simulation. DAVE scores mix weighted DVOA with preseason projections, giving extra weight to video games over the previous two months whereas additionally incorporating September video games in addition to prior information from earlier than the season. For instance, DAVE assumes that Kansas Metropolis is best than what the Chiefs have proven us to this point, however every week the quantity of preseason projection we use in DAVE goes down as we get extra information about how good Kansas Metropolis really is that this season.

The DAVE scores listed under don’t regulate for backup quarterbacks, however like I stated, we do estimates for the impact of backup quarterbacks once we do the scores that we use within the playoff odds simulation. This is a take a look at the distinction proper now between the highest groups in DAVE and the highest groups in quarterback-adjusted DAVE.

Rk Common
1 BUF 25.6% BUF 25.6%
2 TB 24.7% TB 24.7%
3 NE 19.3% DAL 22.0%
4 DAL 19.2% ARI 20.0%
5 ARI 17.0% NE 19.3%
6 LAR 14.7% LAR 14.7%
7 SF 14.5% SF 14.5%
8 NO 11.4% SEA 13.5%
9 MIN 11.4% GB 12.7%
10 GB 10.3% MIN 11.4%
11 BAL 10.0% BAL 10.0%
12 KC 8.7% KC 8.7%

Dallas, San Francisco, Minnesota, Kansas Metropolis, and Inexperienced Bay all moved up in DVOA this week, however the greatest mover was the New England Patriots. The Patriots transfer all the way in which up from thirteenth to fifth in DVOA after an enormous dominant win over the Cleveland Browns. Opponent changes reached full power this week, and with the present opponent changes, the Patriots get 126.0% DVOA for this win. That is the second-highest single recreation of the season, trailing solely Buffalo’s Week 4 40-0 castration of the Houston Texans. That recreation is at the moment at 126.7% DVOA. It could be over 150% if not for opponent changes! With their rise in each DVOA and DAVE, we now have the Patriots making the postseason 88% of the time in our playoff simulation.

Cleveland, in the meantime, plummets from sixth to seventeenth in DVOA off this one horrible recreation. The Browns’ playoff odds additionally drop 24% from 56.5% to 32.5%.

If you happen to take a look at the playoff odds report, you will discover that there is a massive distinction between the most probably groups to make the playoffs and the most probably groups to win the Tremendous Bowl. At this level, the previous relies extra on the group’s report and their schedule going ahead. The latter relies partly on what seed a group is more likely to win but additionally considerably on the group’s DVOA ranking. That is how we get Tennessee and Inexperienced Bay, every at 8-2, because the groups most probably to make the playoffs however not in our prime 5 most probably groups to win the Tremendous Bowl.

We have written lots about Inexperienced Bay and Tennessee this yr. The Packers moved up in DVOA this week with a pleasant win towards Seattle. Their protection has actually turned issues round during the last month. Inexperienced Bay’s defensive DVOA for Weeks 1-6 was 11.4%, which was twenty seventh within the league. Inexperienced Bay’s defensive DVOA for Weeks 7-10 was -22.3%, which was sixth within the league. The Packers are nonetheless being held down in DVOA by their horrible Week 1 loss to New Orleans and by a decrease offensive DVOA for the sport the place Jordan Love performed quarterback whereas Aaron Rodgers was out for COVID.

As for Tennessee, effectively, we have written lots in regards to the Titans they usually did it once more this week. They received one other recreation regardless of having the decrease DVOA ranking. Tennessee beat New Orleans regardless of being outgained considerably, 373 yards (6.1 per play) to 264 yards (4.6 per play). They received the turnover margin as a result of every group fumbled as soon as however the Titans recovered each fumbles. New Orleans’ fumble got here on a kick return and gave the Titans a brief subject on the New Orleans 19. They scored a landing. And the Titans took benefit of each a foul fourth-and-goal name by Sean Payton, kicking a subject purpose from the 1, and two missed additional factors they actually had nothing to do with. And nonetheless, the Saints had been inside a two-point conversion of sending the sport to extra time.

The Titans get -19.9% DVOA for this recreation, which lowers their season general DVOA to 0.7%. That is nonetheless above common, barely, nevertheless it ranks 18th within the league. The Titans are somewhat increased in weighted DVOA, 3.5%, which ranks fifteenth. Their very simple remaining schedule and 8-2 report give them a big leg up on getting the No. 1 seed within the AFC and that all-important first-round bye. Even with such a low DVOA, they at the moment get the first-round bye in 48% of our simulations. However the Titans merely are not so good as their report they usually shouldn’t be No. 1 and even within the prime three of NFL energy rankings across the Web.

This is the place the Titans at the moment are in comparison with the worst 8-2 groups in DVOA historical past. All of those groups made the playoffs. A few of them even made the Tremendous Bowl! However the ones that made the Tremendous Bowl usually improved within the second half of the yr. I am curious to return and see what the press was saying about a few of these groups on the time. Have been the 2000 Vikings on prime of NFL energy rankings across the Web? I keep in mind having to clarify the 2003 Panthers always, since that was the primary yr of Soccer Outsiders. They really declined within the second half of the season, then turned issues round and received scorching within the playoffs to virtually win the championship.

Worst 8-2 Groups by DVOA, 1983-2021
12 months Group W-L DVOA Rk Ultimate
2000 MIN 8-2 -3.5% 20 11-5 -1.3% 20
2021 TEN 8-2 0.7% 18
1999 TEN 8-2 4.2% 18 13-3 14.9% 5
2003 CAR 8-2 5.9% 14 11-5 -0.2% 16
2021 GB 8-2 6.8% 12
2001 CHI 8-2 7.3% 11 13-3 15.9% 8
1997 MIN 8-2 7.5% 10 9-7 -0.8% 16
2004 ATL 8-2 7.7% 12 11-5 -1.7% 15
2016 OAK 8-2 8.7% 8 12-4 7.6% 10
1989 NYG 8-2 9.0% 9 12-4 15.3% 6
1998 ATL 8-2 9.3% 11 14-2 22.9% 6
2002 GB 8-2 9.8% 12 12-4 7.8% 13

* * * * *

Soccer Outsiders playoff odds, snap counts, and the FO+ database at the moment are all up to date by means of Week 10. A reminder that each one our free stats pages, together with DVOA and participant place stats, require registration to view. This isn’t a paywall! You solely must register (without cost) after which log in to the positioning to view these pages. Whilst you’re at it, you will get a seven-day trial of FO+ and take a look at the FO+ options like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy soccer analysis instruments, and picks towards the unfold.

* * * * *

Right here is the Soccer Outsiders High 16 by means of 10 weeks of 2021, measured by our proprietary Protection-adjusted Worth Over Common (DVOA) system that breaks down each single play and compares a group’s efficiency to the league common based mostly on state of affairs with the intention to decide worth over common. (Defined additional right here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for opponent and efficiency indoors and think about all fumbles, stored or misplaced, as equal worth. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for kind of stadium (heat, chilly, dome, Denver) and week of season. As at all times, constructive numbers signify extra factors so DEFENSE is best when it’s NEGATIVE.

Opponent changes at the moment are at full power as now we have hit Week 10.

DAVE is a components which mixes our preseason forecast with present DVOA to get a extra correct projection of how a group will play the remainder of the season. DAVE is at the moment 36% preseason forecast and 64% precise efficiency for groups with 9 video games performed, and 24% preseason forecast and 76% precise efficiency for groups with 10 video games performed. It’s not at the moment adjusted for any backup quarterbacks.

To save lots of folks a while, please use the next format for all complaints:

<group> is clearly ranked <too excessive/too low> as a result of <purpose unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective rating system> is method higher than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating remark, ideally with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

Click on right here for the complete desk.


Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.